Although the weather could be a problem tonight, this evening’s slate of televised MLB games stands out. Depending on where you’re located, you’ll get one of the following matchups on FOX: Guardians-Cubs, Dodgers-Royals or Rays-Mariners. I’ve got three MLB player prop picks today, so let’s secure the bag. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Tyler Glasnow.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Tyler Glasnow, Daniel Lynch
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
OddsShopper’s Model Target: Nick Madrigal at BetMGM
There is a very good chance that we won’t see any action at Wrigley Field today due to the weather. The National Weather Service predicts a 60% chance of rain from 7 p.m. to 1 p.m. the next day. But, on the off chance that we do get treated to tonight’s Guardians-Cubs game, one player prop for Chicago stands out to me on the betting markets.
Infielder Nick Madrigal has been on fire lately. In the month of June, he is hitting .340 with a .898 OPS. He has brought his season averages in those statistics up from .240 and .576 to .281 and .703, respectively. He just hit his first home run of the year last night, and things are starting to come together for him.
If this game goes on as scheduled, Madrigal will face RHP Tanner Bibee (4-2). Bibee has struggled against RHBs both in the majors and minors this season. He has allowed 12 extra-base hits and five home runs, good for a .768 OPS, to major-league righties. Likewise, he has given up 13 extra-base hits and five home runs, good for a .724 OPS, to minor-league righties. Let’s trust Madrigal to rack up another two bases tonight at odds of +155 (39.2%) via BetMGM.
Best MLB Player Prop: Nick Madrigal Over 1.5 Bases +155 at BetMGM
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
Isaiah’s Target: Tyler Glasnow at FanDuel
The Rays will start RHP Tyler Glasnow (2-1) tonight against Seattle. It’s a favorable matchup for Glasnow, as the Mariners take the second-most strikeouts per game (9.7), striking out a whopping 25.7% of the time. Although Glasnow owns a phenomenal 13.5 K/9, he hasn’t gone deep into games this year. We’re yet to see him throw more than 100 pitches or stick in a game for more than six innings. His lack of volume is the primary justification for why his under is one of my top MLB player prop picks to watch today.
The market is another justification for this play. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 8.5 strikeouts at a monster -186 (65%). However, public books are taking action on a much more generous price. We can lock in the under at only -154 (60.6%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This price won’t stick on the board forever, and while fading an efficient pitcher like Glasnow can be troubling, he has stayed under this number in five of his six starts on the year.
Best MLB Player Prop: Tyler Glasnow Under 8.5 Strikeouts -154 at FanDuel
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
Isaiah’s Target: Daniel Lynch at DraftKings
The Kansas City Royals aren’t good. The Los Angeles Dodgers are very good. Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers are heavily favored and are expected to cover the run line more often than not. However, that opens up some contrarian value on Kansas City’s starting pitcher, LHP Daniel Lynch (1-3).
We’ll target Lynch on the strikeout markets tonight. Although he has struck out fewer than four batters in his last three outings, he struck out four or more batters in his first three, including a six-strikeout showing against the Washington Nationals and a seven-strikeout showing against the Colorado Rockies. His major-league K/9 sits at just 6 this year, but he recorded an 8.3 in the metric last year and owns a minor-league K/9 of 8.2 over the last two seasons.
Let’s trust Lynch for a bounce-back showing tonight. The Dodgers could knock him out of the game early, but they’re also striking out at the 18th-highest rate (23%), and we’re getting Lynch at a discount because of his recent underperformance. The over will cost us only -145 (59.2%) at DraftKings but clocks in at -163 (61.2%) at Pinnacle.
Best MLB Player Prop: Daniel Lynch Over 3.5 Strikeouts -145 at DraftKings
