The best way to spice up your August afternoon is to get some skin in the game on the MLB. I have two MLB player prop picks to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Yandy Diaz.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Yandy Diaz, Matt Chapman
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 6:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Yandy Diaz at FanDuel
You can buy one of the hottest bats in baseball to record multiple bases at odds of +105 (48.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook today. You won’t find this prop priced any shorter than -105 (51.2%) elsewhere, and Pinnacle, a sharp book, even lists it at -109 (52.2%). Diaz has hit the over in his last two games, through which he has seven hits in nine at-bats, two of which even went for extra bases. While that pace isn’t sustainable, we don’t need it to be for this bet to cash.
Although the Tampa Bay Rays haven’t been dominant offensively, Diaz is their best asset, especially at home. He leads the team in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .376. Tropicana Field might be known as a pitcher’s park, but Diaz is still hitting .355 here with 18 extra-base hits and nine home runs. He has cashed the over in his last three home starts, through which he is hitting .636.
Diaz will also benefit from the pitching matchup. He’ll take on RHP Dakota Hudson tonight, and while he hasn’t faced him before, Diaz is hitting .321 with 30 extra-base hits and 11 home runs against RHPs this year. Hudson, who began the year as a reliever for the Cardinals, has a solid 4.10 ERA but only a 5.29 xERA, which suggests he has been overperforming. Let’s fade him today as he takes on a red-hot Diaz. Lock this one in at FanDuel before the line moves.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians | 7:10 p.m. ET on MLB TV
Isaiah’s Target: Matt Chapman at FanDuel
The Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Cleveland Guardians in the penultimate contest of their four-game series today, and Matt Chapman stands out as a batter to target. Although opposing teams have rarely used LHPs against the Blue Jays this year, Cleveland will start LHP Logan Allen today, which bodes well for Chapman. Chapman, a RHB, is hitting .333 against LHPs this year with 13 extra-base hits and four home runs in 81 at-bats.
Chapman hasn’t been perfect lately, but the matchup against Allen is a solid bounce-back spot. Chapman went hitless with two strikeouts on Monday, and the Blue Jays used him off the bench on Tuesday. He got a hit in his lone at-bat, though, which is a positive. Despite his lack of jaw-dropping numbers, Chapman still ranks third on the Blue Jays in xwOBA at .349 and is a close second behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in expected home runs. Meanwhile, Allen owns a 3.65 ERA but only a 4.53 xERA, so he should face some regression at some point.
We can buy Chapman to record multiple bases at odds of +105 (48.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. However, if you’re worried about Chapman coming off the bench again, you can get him at +100 (50%) via BetMGM and have the assurance that your bet will still be void if he doesn’t start but does get a pinch-hitting opportunity. Chapman has been one of Toronto’s best weapons against LHPs all season, which makes this a top MLB player prop to watch on today’s card.
Best MLB Player Prop: Matt Chapman Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 for 0.5 Units at FanDuel
