The college football season has arrived, so with everyone’s attention focused on pigskins, we can find some extra value on the baseball betting markets. Our staff has two MLB player props today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Bryce Harper, for Angels-Athletics and Phillies-Brewers.
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Best MLB Player Props Today: Picks for Bryce Harper, Paul Blackburn
Angels-Athletics Player Prop
Tout: Justin Martin
Watch: N/A
When: 4:05 p.m. ET
Where: Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland
Who: Paul Blackburn at Caesars
Do I enjoy backing the woeful Los Angeles Angels? No. What I do enjoy is a prime letdown spot for RHP Paul Blackburn after a 104-pitch outing just five days ago. Blackburn pitched six innings of two-run baseball against the Chicago White Sox, who are even more of a dumpster fire than the Angels. The Angels offense looked competitive in their past series against the Philadelphia Phillies. They scored a combined 19 runs but ended up taking just one game in the series. This is another spot for the top of the Angels’ order to score multiple runs. It’s headlined by rookie Nolan Schanuel, who is hitting .367 in his young career against RHPs. Shohei Ohtani then follows it up with his MVP power. The rest of the order consists of multiple hitters who have seen Blackburn in the past and have had success against him.
The books expect Blackburn to go at least six innings in this one. The more innings he pitches, the more chances we have to cash this player prop. He has gone at least six innings in three straight starts but has yet to give up more than two runs. He has issued at least two walks in six of his last 10 starts and could deal with some fatigue after throwing more than 100 pitches in three of his last five starts. It’s no fun backing the Angels, but one through five in this order have been extremely solid recently.
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Best Angels-Phillies MLB Player Prop: Paul Blackburn Over 2.5 Earned Runs -107 at Caesars
Phillies-Brewers Player Prop
Tout: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where: American Family Field, Wisconsin
Who: Bryce Harper at DraftKings
The Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers will square off in a heated NL playoff race, and you can tune into the action live on FOX — if your affiliate is carrying that game and not Twins-Rangers instead. RHP Colin Rea will take the mound for Milwaukee, which bodes well for Philadelphia’s LHBs. Rea owns a 5.11 ERA, worse than his 4.42 xERA, to go with a .431 xSLG allowed and .251 xBA allowed. He is a below-average pitcher in all of those metrics, and his .511 SLG and .258 BA allowed to LHBs make some members of Philadelphia’s order excellent MLB player prop picks today.
We’ll put our action down on LHB Bryce Harper today. Harper is having an excellent season, and although the home runs haven’t been there for him until just recently, he has done plenty of damage to opposing teams. Harper leads the Phillies in xBA (.286) and xSLG (.513), both of which are in the 91st percentile. He hasn’t taken on Rea before, but his .308 BA and .486 SLG against RHPs should inspire some confidence. Harper is hitting an absurd .396 with a .875 SLG over the last 15 days, which probably isn’t sustainable over the long term, but he is hot enough to buy him to record multiple bases for -105 (51.2%) at DraftKings Sportsbook, which we can boost to +142 (41.3%) for the first $25.
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Best Phillies-Brewers MLB Player Prop: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 at DraftKings
Today’s Best MLB & Sportsbook Promotions
