Happy Tuesday! The college football season is well underway, and the NFL season is still yet to begin, so it can be easy to lose sight of baseball. However, value abounds, and our staff has three MLB player props today. OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Cody Bellinger, for Giants-Cubs and Mariners-Reds.
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Best MLB Player Props Today: Picks for Cody Bellinger, Jake Fraley
Brewers-Pirates Player Prop
Tout: Justin Martin
Watch: N/A
When: 6:35 p.m. ET
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Who: Brandon Woodruff at DraftKings
The books expect a solid outing from RHP Brandon Woodruff tonight. His earned runs prop is set at just 1.5, while his hits allowed prop is set at 4.5 and is juiced to the under. The Brewers are currently listed at -178 (64%) on the moneyline at FanDuel with Woodruff’s odds of recording a win set to +110 (47.6%). I’ll gladly pivot to Woodruff over 17.5 outs at a playable number on all major books.
We’re five starts into Woodruff’s return from a three-month stint on the IL, and the leash has been released. He has thrown more than 90 pitches in his last three starts and only struggled against the Texas Rangers, which was pretty reasonable, as the Rangers are loaded. Luckily for us, the Pirates are not.
Since the start of August, the Pirates are hitting .226 against RHP with a slugging percentage that ranks in the bottom half of the league. The concern here is the walks — during that same span, the Pirates have an 11% walk rate. However, Woodruff walked just one batter in his last start and has a 6.6% walk rate in seven starts this season.
Woodruff has owned the Pirates in the past, especially the top of their order. Andrew McCutchen, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds are a combined 7-for-49 against Woodruff. He returned to action against the Pirates back in August and pitched five shutout innings in just 85 pitches.
This isn’t a spot in which the Brewers can afford to limit Woodruff. The Chicago Cubs are only 2.5 games behind them in the NL Central. Expect a lengthy outing from Woodruff, who has pitched at least six innings in four of his seven starts — and three of his four starts with at least 90 pitches.
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Best Brewers-Pirates MLB Player Prop: Brandon Woodruff Over 17.5 Outs -120 at DraftKings
Mariners-Reds Player Prop
Tout: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: N/A
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Who: Jake Fraley at DraftKings
The Cincinnati Reds get to host the Seattle Mariners at Great American Ballpark today, and that matchup bodes poorly for Seattle RHP Bryce Miller. Miller moves from one of the MLB’s best pitcher’s parks to one of its best hitter’s parks, which could prove jarring. His steady 3.62 ERA at home already ticks up to 4.40 on the road. Miller has also been struggling against opposite-handed batters this year, allowing them to hit nine of his 14 home runs allowed with a .500 SLG.
Let’s get action on LHB Jake Fraley. Fraley is slashing .276/.333/.515 at home this year. He is also slashing .285/.363/.506 against RHPs like Miller. He has 15 home runs this year, all of which have come against RHPs as well. Although he just returned from a toe injury that is still bugging him, he is slashing .417/.462/.667 since getting back. Let’s get some exposure to his total bases prop. We can buy the over for my top MLB player prop pick today at odds of +115 (46.5%) via DraftKings.
Best Braves-Rockies MLB Player Prop: Jake Fraley Over 1.5 Total Bases +115 at DraftKings
Giants-Cubs Player Prop
Tout: Justin Martin
Watch: TBS
When: 7:40 p.m. ET
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago
Who: Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger is off to a hot start in September. He has eight hits in 21 at-bats, including three home runs and seven RBIs. It’s looking like another bulk bullpen game for the Giants, as LHP Sean Manaea and RHP Jakob Junis haven’t pitched since August 31. Bellinger has the advantage over Manaea with four hits in 13 at-bats against the LHP. On the other hand, he is 0-for-4 against Junis. RHP Ryan Walker is slated to start the game but just as an opener and should see Bellinger in the first inning.
Bellinger has been a cash cow no matter the matchup. He has hit the over in seven of his last 10 games and in 65% of his home games. Since the second half of the MLB season, Bellinger ranks in the top 10 in hits, runs and RBIs. I’ll continue to back one of the hottest hitters on the planet in a must-win game against the Giants who trail them in the Wild Card standings. Bellinger is one of the top MLB players to pick on the prop markets today.
Best Giants-Cubs MLB Player Prop: Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits, Runs & RBIs -120 at DraftKings
