The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off a 14-run shelling of the Colorado Rockies and there is no reason to think they won’t put up a crooked number tonight. The Pirates have a whopping 6.6 implied run total tonight in a game against one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, Jose Urena. But with so many people expecting these teams to score six or more runs there’s value on a lot of MLB prop bets in this Pirates-Rockies game. The MLB bet standing out the most in OddsShopper’s model is on the Pirate’s rookie IF Ji-Hwan Bae at BetRivers sportsbook.
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Best Pirates-Rockies MLB Prop Bet: Ji-Hwan Bae O/U 1.5 Total Bases
The Pittsburgh Pirates were a popular underdog pick heading into this season. Much of that steam was coming from the excitement over Oneil Cruz. That steam seems to be dissipating with Cruz out of the picture after he broke his ankle last week. However, Coors can change that picture for any offense, and bettors saw that first hand last night when the Pirates raked off of Rockies SP Kyle Freeland.
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, not everyone got in on the onslaught. Youngster Ji-Hwan Bae had a decent game, reaching base three times and stealing one other, but that output came with only one total base. Bae managed to only hit one single in the game. He hasn’t had an extra base hit in a week since he homered last Tuesday against the Houston Astros. That lack of output comes in the middle of a major slump that has seen Bae’s batting average fall from it’s peak at .304 on April 7th to .220.
Pittsburgh’s inflated run total is certainly increasing Bae’s projection, but it simply isn’t coming in high enough to warrant going over his 1.5 total at the current market prices for this bet.
On the other hand, the OddsShopper model is identifying the under 1.5 total bases priced at +105 at BetRivers. Even in Coors against Jose Urena, that price is creating a high opportunity MLB prop bet opportunity. The bet should win about 53% of the time and have a 10% expected value. That’s worth making a sizeable bet at around 6.5% of your bankroll if you are using the Kelly Criterion to grow sustainably.
The market could move and OddsShopper will be there to identify more high ROI MLB prop bets whenever they open up. You can take advantage of a 7-Day Premium trial to see what it’s all about and find more bets across every major sport.
Best Pirates-Rockies MLB Player Prop: Ji-Hwan Bae Under 1.5 Total Bases +105 (BetRivers)
