Best MLB Prop Bet: Ranger Suarez Is Dialed In (June 14)

The Phillies are in Baltimore to begin their series against the Orioles in what should be a fun matchup between two of the best teams in MLB. Philadelphia is sending left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez to the mound, and with Baltimore striking out at a high rate against lefties, his strikeout prop is looking good today. Let’s get into the best MLB prop bet for Friday, June 14.

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Best MLB Prop Bet Today | Ranger Suarez

Suarez has been stellar this year, firmly cementing himself as an ace. In 79.2 innings (13 starts), he has a crisp 2.62 xERA (top 9% in the league), a very good 2.69 xFIP and a low .260 xwOBA. Notably, Suarez’s strikeout rate is up to 9.60 per nine innings and 28% overall, a career best and 2.4 percentage points higher than his previous high. Likewise, his 28.6% CSW% is also a career best, and his 10.5% swinging-strike rate is the second-best mark of his career.

Suarez strikes out 31% of lefties and 27.2% of righties and throws 90 to 100 pitches a game, so he should be good for five to seven innings. Excluding his start against the Cardinals where an injury caused him to exit after two innings, he had six or more strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts. While Suarez should see a major regression to his strikeout rate moving forward — he’s projected for a 22% strikeout rate by season-long projections — that shouldn’t necessarily be evident today against Baltimore.

Baltimore is one of the better teams against left-handed pitchers lately, but it also strikes out at a high clip. Specifically, the Orioles have the third-highest wRC+ (125) and collective strikeout rate (25.7%) against lefties since the start of May (311 plate appearances). They are expected to roll out no fewer than six batters with above-average strikeout rates against lefties this year. Mainly, look for Colton Cowser (39.6%), Jordan Westburg (29.7%), Gunner Henderson (27.7%) and Anthony Santander (25%) to strike out against Suarez.

While targeting a pitcher to succeed against Baltimore is a scary proposition, the odds for Suarez to go over 5.5 strikeouts in today’s game (+126) are simply too good to pass given his recent form and Baltimore’s tendency to strike out at a high rate against lefties.