Despite hitting the first couple of first-five bets we’ve made this year, we’ll target a different market today. With that out of the way, let’s dig deeper into today’s best prop bet for Rangers-Astros. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder! Now onto our best Yordan Alvarez prop today.
Best MLB Prop Today: Yordan Alvarez | April 12
Best MLB Player Prop Today: Yordan Alvarez Prop O/U 0.5 Walks
Alvarez had an identical 13.9% walk rate in each of the previous two seasons. Focusing on last year’s rates, he walked at a healthy 15.2% rate against right-handed pitchers and at an also-high 11.5% rate when facing lefties. He has a lower yet still good 10.3% walk rate against right-handed pitchers this year (39 plate appearances) and a 9.1% rate against left-handed pitchers (22 plate appearances), walking in six out of the 14 games he played thus far. Alvarez’s walk rates should see some positive regression as the season progresses, and that could happen as soon as today in his matchup against the Texas Rangers and right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning.
Dunning walked 9.7% of the left-handed batters he faced last season (across 77.1 innings). While his 16.7% walk rate against lefties this year (walked three of the 17 batters he faced) is most likely to regress, it’s encouraging to see that his tendency to issue free passes to lefties hasn’t gone away. It’s also encouraging that he walked Alvarez three times in six career games (15 plate appearances).
While this is a home game for Houston, Alvarez is batting second and should have sufficient opportunities to cash in on his walks prop. The over on Dunning’s walks prop (1.5) is heavily juiced (-205), so Vegas expects him to walk at least a couple of batters in today’s game. Given Alvarez’s rates, betting on him to account for one of these walks is more than reasonable.
Best MLB Player Prop Today: Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Walks (-110 at DraftKings)
