As I write this, a 4-year-old just got domed out by a dodgeball in the backyard of my apartment building. Luckily, that puts us at about the same level emotionally, and I think both of our outputs of tears could both benefit from some MLB same-game parlay winnings — this time rolling with a Los Angeles special. Let’s get to it with a BetMGM MLB parlay bet for Padres-Angels courtesy of OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder.
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MLB Same Game Parlay: BetMGM Parlay With Jake Cronenworth
As always, we are going with value compared to the market, and as Loughy has explained to us, that often means leaning on unders. We are also going with two players that give us a high expected win rate without sacrificing value. Given the markets and True Odds from OddsShopper, this is a long-term profitable parlay for Padres-Angels.
Leg #1: Willie Calhoun Under 0.5 RBIs
You know, I don’t think I’m stepping out too much by saying that a slightly below-average offense is going to have a tough time against the only pitcher in the league who throws a knuckleball.
I know a knuckleball isn’t the only path to success in MLB, but when a guy can mix it in at 75-ish mph, that’s some tricksy stuff. Matt Waldron is far from Phil Niekro out there, to be sure. That said, hist 3.46 FIP and 9.5 strikeouts per nine are pretty darn strong, and the Angels are down just about everyone of substance in their lineup.
Calhoun will be hitting behind a decent guy in Taylor Ward and a terrible on-base guy in Mickey Moniak. Calhoun’s average is decent at .275, but he is hitting for basically no power whatsoever (.127 ISO). That means the best shot of getting a run home is a home run — of which he has one on the year in 105 plate appearances) or having a runner in scoring position.
The latter seems unlikely on an Angeles team that is missing virtually every offensive threat at the top of the order.
OddsShopper gives Calhoun a 32% of driving home a run tonight, so the under has a 3.5% EV on -190 odds at BetMGM.
For reference, that 68% win rate on under 0.5 RBIs leads to -210 True Odds. As such, this is a great starting point for a Padres-Angels SGP.
Leg #2: Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 RBIs
Screw it — same odds, same type of prop, similar value; that’s what I call a solid late-game SGP.
The Padres are certainly a better overall offense than what the Angels can produce, but their power is pretty comparable. Only five teams have a worse ISO this year despite the team’s top-5 on-base percentage.
Now, that solid metric portends well for Cronenworth. Unfortunately, there are a lot of great hitters between Luis Arraez at the top of the order and Cronenworth at around No. 6 against a lefty in Tyler Anderson. Cronenworth has a solid 38 RBIs on the year, but only three have come against left-handed pitchers.
Some of this is due to Cronenworth dropping down the order in this platoon, some of it is due to his .522 OPS in the split. As a result, OddsShopper gives Cronenworth just a 33% chance of driving home a run tonight, and the True Odds of -202 make this bet 2.1% +EV on its own.
Overall, that gets this parlay to +133 for a 45% expected win rate and 5% positive value as a long-term profitable play.
MLB Parlay Today: +133 at BetMGM
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OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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