The Washington Nationals’ Patrick Corbin is one of the worst starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. Corbin posted a 6:31 ERA across 31 starts last season, giving up 27 home runs and an .887 OPS to his opponents. Shockingly, that was an improvement from his 2021 campaign, and his first two starts of this season where he’s allowed a whopping 1.030 OPS and a .435 on base percentage to his opponents. Sports betting markets are well aware of Corbin’s ineptitude. The Nationals head west to take on the Los Angeles Angels who have a 6.4 implied run total. And yet, there is still value on Nationals-Angels MLB prop bets for the home team’s hitters.
OddsShopper’s betting model tracks every major sports betting market, using the sharpest line makers to find which book is offering the best price. The tool identifies where bettors can find the highest ROI bets, their probability of hitting and the appropriate bet size given those chances. The MLB prop bets for Nationals-Angels are standing out, but users can who sign-up for a 7-day Premium trial can see the power of the tool in every betting category, and every sport.
Best Nationals-Angels MLB Bets Today | April 10
Hunter Renfroe to Home Run (+370, DraftKings)
Patrick Corbin is prone to giving up the deep ball and Hunter Renfroe is good at hitting them. Anyone who looks at the numbers and inflated run totals can see this. However, it appears that DraftKings just isn’t pricing this one correctly. OddsShopper’s projections have Renfroe hitting a home run and hitting this MLB prop bet 23% in this scenario. That’s high, and the +370 price tag is good for a 7% long-term expected ROI.
A Renfroe home run still happens roughly once out of four times, so don’t break the bank on this bet. The OddsShopper model suggests dedicated about 1.4% of your bankroll to this Hunter Renfro MLB bet.
Brandon Drury Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125, BetMGM)
The OddsShopper model is making a similar case for Brandon Drury‘s total base number. You can find this bet for +125 at BetMGM which is simply too good to pass up on an event that projects to happen 47% of the time. That’s good for a 5% expected value and worth staking about 2.5% of your bankroll on.
These MLB prop bets may move as the game gets near, but be on the lookout for these odds for tonight’s Nationals-Angels matchup.
Taylor Ward Under 1.5 Total Bases (-112, BetRivers)
With all that talk of Patrick Corbin’s potential to implode, there is still value on some of these Angels’ under bets. Taylor Ward is set to lead off for the Angels. His right handed bat should matchup exceptionally well in the game. However, 1.5 total bases is a lot for any hitter. Their modal outcome is zero, so there’s plenty of reason to hammer their unders in any situation if the price is right. This one at -112 at BetRivers is the best price available on this MLB prop market. It’s good for a 6% expected ROI given the 56% chance of hitting.
Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 Total Bases (-118, BetRivers)
Last but not least, is Shohei Ohtani. He might be the best player in baseball, but even in a great matchup against Patrick Corbin there’s no reason to price any hitter total base under this cheaply. Ohtani has plenty of potential strikeout potential, while also being a candidate for intentional walks. THe lefty-lefty split doesn’t work out perfectly in his favor. But most importantly, Ohtani is scheduled to pitch tomorrow, which increases his chances to get pinch hit for an lose an at bat later in the game if the Angels think they have it in hand.
OddsShopper has this bet hitting 57% of the time which is enough to have a 5% expected ROI. The win rate and return make it worth laying about 4.4% of your bankroll.
