The Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants are right where everyone expected them to be in the standings before the 2023 season began. Both clubs are near the bottom of their divisions, fighting to stay in contention. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t value on these teams on the betting market, or is there? The markets are tight for Nationals-Giants MLB Bets, but there could be some value to eek out.
OddsShopper’s tools use the sharpest oddsmakers in every bet sport and in every bet type in order to find the efficient price. OddsShopper then scours the industry to identify which sportsbooks are off from that price, providing users with the highest ROI opportunities, proper bet sizing and win rates. The tool covers every MLB bet, and all major sports. Grab a seven-day free trial to OddsShopper Premium to give it a try.
Best Nationals-Giants Bet: Squeezing Out Value in Efficient Market
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Washington Nationals: +205 | San Francisco Giants: -245
Over 8.5: -105 | Under 8.5: -115
Despite having nearly identical records, the San Francisco Giants (15-19) and Washington Nationals (15-20) are miles apart in their win probabilities tonight. Logan Webb takes the bump for the Giants and has been effective this season, not to mention his past status as one of the league’s top arms. The same can’t be said for the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin, who has long been considered a “gas can” on the mound. That has this game priced as a -245 favorite, which accounting for the Vig gives them a win probability of over 68%.
Those chances are extraordinarily high for any major league baseball game, but the numbers don’t lie. OddsShopper’s market tracking model has been effectively finding value and beating the market on MLB bets all season. This one is priced right. In fact, there isn’t much value on the run total, run lines or MLB game props either.
It’s a clear sign to stay away and apply the tools elsewhere. However, there might be some positive ROI betting opportunities in the props. One that stands out is Austin Slater to go under 1.5 total bases. The Giants’ leadoff man is excellent against left handers, so facing off against Patrick Corbin is a great spot. However, there’s also the risk that he gets pinch hit for once Corbin leaves the game. And with BABIP chances highly variant in baseball, it’s usually hard for anyone to get over that 1.5 total bases mark.
You can grab this MLB prop bet for Nationals-Giants over at BetRivers Sportsbook. The bet has about a 56% chance of winning, which is enough for a 2% expected ROI at BetRivers’ -122 odds. It’s certainly not a spot to smash, but if you are looking for an MLB bet in tonight’s late slate, you’ll have a positive expectation on Austin Slater here. Don’t lay your net worth on this, but staking around 1.88% of your bank roll makes sense if you’re using Kelly Criterion bet sizing, which we recommend.
Don’t forget to check out a seven-day trial to OddsShopper Premium. It’s the perfect way to find betting spots to hit, and to learn when the value just isn’t there.
Best Nationals-Giants MLB Bet: Austin Slater UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (-122, at BetRivers Sportsbook)
