The Seattle Mariners got out to a series lead against the Washington Nationals on Monday night, defeating the visitor’s 8-4. The Nats’ will look for revenge on Tuesday night when the teams meet again. The MLB odds for the game suggest it’s a lopsided matchup on paper, but there could be some value and angles in this one. Let’s look at the OddsShopper model to find the best Nationals-Mariners MLB bet and prediction for Tuesday’s game.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Nationals-Mariners Betting Pick & Prediction: Underrated Pitching, Overvalued Hitting
Nationals-Mariners Odds
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Nationals: +180 | Mariners: -225
Over 8: -120 | Under 8: +100
The Washington Nationals are struggling. At 30-48 they have the worst record in the National League and they are 4-10 in the last 2.5 weeks. One of the few bright spots in Washington has been Lane Thomas. The team’s 27-year old leadoff hitter is coming into his own, posting solid numbers across the board this year. Thomas has a .297 batting average, .859 OPS and a steady 2.4 WAR. He has hit fourteen home runs which is just three shy of a career high seventeen homers that he hit in 2022. Thomas led off Monday’s game with a homer run off of Mariners’ ace Luis Castillo, and he’ll now look to do the same Tuesday against Bryan Woo.
Woo has started four games for the Mariners since being called up from Triple-A, going 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA. But don’t let those number fool you, Woo has improved steadily over his four outings and has solid peripheral numbers. Most of the damage Woo has given up came in his first start against the Texas Rangers in which they put up six earned runs off the rookie in his first career major league start. He then threw two solid games against the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox. Woo’s last outing was a 5.1, 0 ER, 2 Hit and 3 BB outing against the New York Yankees in the Bronx. He could be a solid big league pitcher when all is said and done.
Woo’s improvement is leaving some value on the Unders for Nationals-Mariners MLB bets. The best spot to target is a Lane Thomas RBI prop that is popping in the model for a 5% expected value. Thomas’ Under 0.5 RBI is at -300 at BetMGM, and that price is not steep enough. He has been good, but these odds are still off for the Nats’ leadoff man. The sharpest books in MLB prop betting have this at even shorter odds, with the model pointing to -371 as the true breakeven number. It’s a solid bet that wins 79% of the time. That win rate and the Vig make this worth putting down about 5% of your bank roll if you’re using Kelly Criterion bank roll management principles.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best Nationals-Mariners MLB Pick: Lane Thomas Under 0.5 RBI (-300) at BetMGM
