The Washington Nationals head north to Queens to take on the New York Mets on Thursday night. The Nats are playing well despite being in the cellar in the NL East. They enter Thursday’s Game 1 against the Mets after posting a 5-1 homestand. That can’t be said for the Mets, who have been one of the most disappointing teams in Major League Baseball after spending big this offseason. Let’s look at Thursday night’s Nationals-Mets odds to make the best prediction and pick the best MLB bet using OddsShopper’s market-based model.
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Best MLB Nationals-Mets Betting Pick & Prediction: CJ Abrams
Nationals-Mets Odds
Odds via BetRivers
Nationals: +185 | Mets: -220
Nationals +1.5: -112 | Mets -1.5: -109
Over 9: -115 | Under 9: -105
The New York Mets might be having one of the bigger letdown seasons in recent memory, but they’re still significant favorites to beat the Nationals in Game 1 of this four-game set. As with most baseball games, the reason the Mets are 66% favorites in the MLB odds is predominantly due to the pitching matchup. Kodai Senga will start for the Mets, and he has been one of the few bright spots of their offseason spending spree. He has a 3.25 ERA and 125 strikeouts in 99 innings. Senga’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.5, and he’s posted a 1.26 WHIP. It’s a strong showing for the Japanese import.
2023 has been a mixed bag for the Nationals’ Josiah Gray. The 25-year-old has improved his overall metrics, decreasing his ERA to 3.45 this year. He posted a 5.02 in 2022 and a 5.31 ERA in 2021. However, Gray’s other metrics are on the decline. His WHIP has increased to 1.44 and his strikeout rate has fallen. Gray has whiffed 98 batters in 112.1 innings and walked 51 for a 1.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He struck out over a batter per inning throughout the rest of his big league career and had fewer walks. Those stats suggest that his improved ERA may be an aberration.
There is a big gap between Senga and Gray, but there’s still plenty of room for scoring on the Nationals. They have just under a 4.0-run implied team total in this spot, and if they don’t get to Senga, there will be chances off the Mets relievers. The Nationals had a strong homestand, and one of the bright spots as of late has been CJ Abrams. The young shortstop was a former top prospect in the Padres system and looks like he could be coming into his own. His increased offensive output comes with a promotion to the Nationals leadoff spot. The change in order will give him plenty of chances to round third and score runs.
You can grab CJ Abrams over 0.5 runs at BetRivers at +155. The MLB bet on this prop has true odds of +144, creating significant positive expected value. You can play it anywhere up to that number but decrease your bet sizing in line with the Kelly Criterion to ensure proper bankroll management. OddsShopper’s market-based model will help you find more Nationals-Mets bets like this and other MLB bets for the rest of the league, in addition to proving Kelly bet sizing and market movement data.
Best Nationals-Mets MLB Pick: CJ Abrams Over 0.5 Hits (+155) at BetRivers
