Tonight marks an important date in Los Angeles Angels history, as it is the first home game this season after the team announced they will not trade Shohei Ohtani. As bleak of a reality as that may be, fans get a double dose of Ohtani, with him taking the mound against the Mariners. That is just one of three games that have fantastic value in the first inning for today’s NRFI column. A slight bump in the road last night in Miami cost us a sweep, so let’s jump right back in with the best NRFI and YRFI bets today.
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Best YRFI and NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs YRFI
Luke Weaver is a disaster, but the Reds somehow were winning. The team has since dropped two of Weaver’s last three starts, and while giving up a ton of runs has not been the main issue, it is still a nagging concern — a lingering one that hangs over the first inning on the North Side of Chicago, as the Cubs should have plenty to work with against Weaver’s 17% strikeout rate and .366 xwOBA. Weaver should be on the hook for at least one baserunner, which helps a Cubs team producing runs at a ridiculous clip in this series. Jameson Taillon is far from a stonewall of defense — struggling with a 20% strikeout rate and .345 xwOBA. As bad as it has been when Weaver pitches for the Reds, they have been able to score plenty of runs to compensate. Expect that to happen early in this game.
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels YRFI
Sure, Shohei Ohtani could easily pitch a perfect game and hit a grand slam, and few would have any trouble expecting such a feat. We will settle for a solo shot in the opening frame as Bryan Woo gets the nod for Seattle. The rookie started off strong but has since faded rather fast over his last few starts, with Seattle struggling to win any of them. Ohtani and his teammates should get the better of Woo, and that starts in the first inning. The flip side focuses on Ohtani, whose strikeout rate is just fine but not automatic this year. The Mariners should offer plenty of strikeout opportunities, but they also have a couple of power bats that can turn on heat. Both starters have a chance to give up an early run, be it from a rare mistake or just bad pitching.
Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals YRFI
Speaking of bad pitching, Matthew Liberatore has entered the conversation. This bet basically says that Liberatore will live up to his numbers and surrender at least one baserunner. The first inning should be kind to the Twins bats, as they are coming off a humiliating loss last night and face a pitcher essentially throwing batting practice. The Cardinals will have some chances against Sonny Gray, but the real offender will be Liberatore and his 14% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate. It is hard to get out of the first inning, let alone win games, with numbers that bad. Gray is dealing with a 23% strikeout rate and .311 xwOBA but has been hit a little when pitching to contact. Nolan Arenado and the Cardinals have good history — albeit limited — against him. It is a great game to target both sides giving up at least one run.
