Thursday clearly belonged to Shohei Ohtani – as do most days – but he shined even brighter on a small slate. The rest of the sport returns to work on Friday as plenty of series open up across the league. There is some fantastic value in attacking first innings – especially a red-hot team at the plate and another game featuring a beatable matchup against a notable starter. Be it pitching or hitting, there is always an angle to exploit for an NRFI or YRFI. It is the best sweat in baseball – we either need six scoreless outs or one run to cross the plate. Here are the three best NRFI bets for Friday, July 28.
Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays YRFI (-120)
The Angels are on a tear, and it’s not just Ohtani providing all of the ammo. Mickey Moniak and others have helped fill the gap from an offensive standpoint, as the team has consistently put up runs over their last 10-13 games. That type of momentum is exactly what a team needs heading into a road matchup against the likes of Kevin Gausman. The Jays ace has pitched well at home – a 32.9% strikeout rate to 5.9% walk rate will travel anywhere – but faces a couple of steaming bats right now atop the Angels lineup. Toronto gets a crack at Lucas Giolito pitching for his new club but on the road, and this is clearly a difficult matchup looking at where strikeouts are found in the lineup. Giolito’s 25.8% strikeout rate is certainly a good number on the year, but he is struggling in other areas – like his .326 xwOBA and .436 xSlugging. Expect some baserunners early in this one.
Detroit Tigers at Miami Marlins NRFI (-125)
Neither Reese Olson for Detroit nor Miami’s Braxton Garrett are pitching exceptionally well to contact, but neither team’s lineup is good enough to take advantage. Watch the first inning tonight, and it will be amazing how many opportunities both teams will miss at the plate simply because they are not good enough. Olson is dealing with a 25.1% strikeout rate, and Garrett is narrowly ahead of him at 26.7% on the year. That is actually good enough to counter their struggles elsewhere – both are stuck with a .332 xwOBA on the season. Part of attacking a YRFI play is expecting hitters to be able to jump on mistakes, but it is just going to be tough to count on that tonight in Miami.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers NRFI (+105)
The Reds certainly look a little different on the road when it comes to home run production, so do not expect Elly De La Cruz to lead off with a solo jack. Instead, the focus is solely on the arm of Reds starter Brandon Williamson. Those who watch close enough during the bottom half of this inning will see a collective exhale every time Williamson gets an out. The entire dugout will move in unison. Yes, he is that bad overall. The only thing that helps him is a solid mixing of pitch selection, combining his 93 mph fastball and cutter with three other off-speed pitches, including a tough and slow slider. Williamson’s biggest problem is missing the target, and if that happens, all bets are lost. It is worth anything +105 or higher to bet this entirely one-sided affair while resting comfortably with Bobby Miller handling his end of the bargain. Do not expect the Reds to jump on Miller and his .304 xwOBA and .237xBA. Let’s go Williamson!
