The calendar flips to August, but nothing changes with our winning approach to NRFI bets. As teams like the New York Mets sell off any hope of competing, and others like the Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks try to get back on the right side of the Wild Card race, desperation breeds value. Tuesday always brings a larger slate to start off the work week, and with it come some areas to attack with starting pitching and struggling offenses. Be it mistakes on the mound or red-hot hitters, there is always some great value in the opening frame. Let’s look at the best NRFI/YRFI bets for Tuesday, Aug. 1.
Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees NRFI
The Yankees saw the return of Aaron Judge with little spike to their success, still struggling to make the final spot for the AL Wild Card. They send Carlos Rodon to the hill with limited action since joining the Bombers, but it is not a great resume. This entire bet rests squarely on the belief that Rodon will keep the Rays scoreless in the opening half of the first inning. This bet safely assumes that Zach Eflin and his 25.2% strikeout rate to ridiculous 3.7% walk rate will keep the Yankees off the basepath — including Judge. It is worth a shot here because the price indicates it is truly a one-sided bet, with Rodon being the variable. Tampa will have a slower start to this game on the road, as they took advantage of a pitching mix-up yesterday for New York. Rodon can sneak by the top half here with a decent enough strikeout rate, so long as he stays away from any walks.
Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates YRFI
Neither pitcher in this matchup should cruise through the first inning as the Tigers and Pirates square off in Pittsburgh. Matt Manning is not striking out enough batters, with a 17.6% strikeout rate behind four pitches — basically neglecting his changeup. His .341 xwOBA does not give much hope that he can blank Pittsburgh in the opening inning. There has been a lot of variance in the Pirates lineup, but those who have consistently played are balancing out strikeouts with average or power — including Jack Suwinski. Detroit gives up so many runs that, even if Johan Oviedo gets by the first inning, his team should punish Manning in the bottom half. The Tigers have been scoring, just not as much as they give up, so do not be shocked if Oviedo struggles and gives up an early walk off his 9.5% walk rate. Either way, baserunners will be active early in this game, which will lead to at least one run.
Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals YRFI
Despite coming off a win, the Cardinals have still dropped seven of their last 10, while the Twins are trying to avoid their sixth straight defeat. Pablo Lopez gets the road start for the Twins — boasting an impressive 30.2% strikeout rate, .282 xwOBA and a .216 xBA — all numbers that define a solid body of work. However, the Cardinals will be happy to face anyone other than the Cubs. Eight of their last 10 games were against Chicago, so expect the Cardinals to come out swinging against Lopez, hoping to avoid any settling in by the Twins righty. Despite the recent dip in offense, the numbers are still there for the top third of the Cardinals lineup. Miles Mikolas looks to start for St. Louis — a guy who struggles to consistently strikeout opposing hitters, gives up some power and is prone to an early mistake. Expect the bats on both sides to come out looking to end some recent skids.
