Welp, Saturday was the first time in months where a reverse sweep went down and totally ruined the day. No sweat, the record on the year remains strong at 80-69, but let’s never do that again. Pushing that into the past allows the present to open up some great value on today’s shortened slate — not the full 15 games on board but a couple of first innings to attack from scoreless to the opposite. Here are the three best NRFI bets for Monday’s action.
Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers YRFI (-125)
It is hard to look around the slate today and not see this jump out for first inning value. The two pitchers are just not great in their own right and should allow a baserunner in both halves of the inning. Graham Ashcraft is all over the place, and even when he is throwing strikes, they rarely result in strikeouts. A 15.8% strikeout rate combined with a .356 xwOBA are truly glaring weaknesses where the Brewers can pounce. Colin Rea is a little bit better but not by much, struggling with a 19.5% strikeout rate while giving up some loud contact — represented by a 90.2 exit velocity and a 42.2 hard-hit rate. The Reds lineup has become more potent with Elly De La Cruz up top, while the Brewers have won seven of 10, with their bats doing some work. Expect an early score here.
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers YRFI (-125)
The biggest question in tonight’s game at Los Angeles is whether or not Michael Grove has truly figured out this pitching thing. He has certainly settled in over the last three starts, but this is a major test with the Blue Jays coming to town. The limiting of runs has not come in dominating strikeout form, and Grove still has shaky numbers pitching to contact. Toronto will make it tough for Grove from the start here; expect some aggressive swings at anything fast in the zone. Jose Berrios has limited loud contact and is working with a decent 23.4% strikeout rate, but he is also struggling with anything in the zone. Just because those balls are not leaving the park does not mean they will not leave the infield. Mookie Betts has great career numbers against Berrios, which could result in an early walk. Baserunners are not either of these pitchers’ friends.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians NRFI (-110)
The lone NRFI play tonight comes in Cleveland, with a lot resting on the shoulders of Ryan Yarbrough. The Royals are just so terrible at baseball compared to the majority of the league that it is difficult to comprehend them jumping on Logan Allen. The Guardians starter is just fine, with a 24.3% strikeout to 8.6% walk rate, and he has been solid against lesser teams — struggling against better hitters. That is not Kansas City. Yarbrough has the more difficult matchup but has a couple of things working in his favor. While he is not going to strike out the side — a 14.4% strikeout rate against Cleveland ain’t cutting it — he is not going to get lit up either. His 32.5% hard-hit rate is solid and 85.9 EV is stellar, all while mixing in speed off his cutter and sinker. This one stays scoreless — at least through one.
