There may not be much on the surface of a 1-2 night, but anyone who tailed all three plays saw profit, thanks to that beautiful +150 NRFI at Coors Field. There are plenty of chances throughout the day to keep the profits coming, albeit with a cleaner record. The best sweat in all of baseball features an entire game shrunk to the first inning, with the best of the lineups versus starting pitching — sometimes strong, other times vulnerable. In the case of today’s slate, there is a healthy balance. Now let’s get into the best NRFI picks for Wednesday, June 28.
Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners YRFI (+105 Caesars)
The Mariners have an earlier start out west but a favorable matchup in Patrick Corbin. Who Seattle sends to the hill is almost inconsequential, as this bet is primarily riding on the failures of Corbin. The Mariners have plenty of strikeouts to be had in their lineup, but they are not just willingly giving them up to opposing pitchers. Corbin’s 14% strikeout rate is not good enough to activate those strikeouts, nor is his .323 xBA on the year. He is not striking many guys out and is getting ripped when pitching to any contact. It gets a little trickier with Logan Gilbert throwing for the Mariners, especially given Gilbert’s 25.7% strikeout rate. But he is not invincible, as seen in some prior starts, nor are there a ton of strikeouts waiting atop the Nationals lineup. Even if Gilbert goes 1-2-3, the damage will be done in the bottom half of the inning.
San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates YRFI (+100 Unibet)
The Padres will have a tough one against Mitch Keller as they look to bounce back from last night’s loss. It has been a special season for Keller, at least according to his metrics, but that does not mean this matchup favors him in the first inning. Both Keller and Padres hurler Blake Snell come in with strikeout rates higher than 27%, but San Diego is a tough out atop its lineup, with strikeouts few and far between. Keller will have to be near perfect to squeeze out a scoreless inning, something not worth a bet by any means given the Padres’ top third of their lineup. Snell is hittable, but more importantly, he is prone to giving up some walks. His 11.8% walk rate is something to keep an eye on, as giving up an early baserunner should allow Pittsburgh to score in the first.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets NRFI (-105 DraftKings)
Good luck getting to Kodai Senga early, Milwaukee. Senga enters the game with impressive numbers — from a 28% strikeout rate to his absurd .221 xBA versus opposing hitters. Tracking the ball is one thing against Senga, but making solid contact is even more difficult. Outside of Christian Yelich, the Brewers are struggling to hit for average atop their lineup. Senga should cruise through his half of the inning, even if he happens to give up a baserunner. The most likely scenario is Yelich stranded on the basepath. Wade Miley’s numbers do not match Senga in the strikeout and xBA departments, but Miley does limit walks rather well. It is a key metric for pitchers who do not have a high strikeout rate, with the expectation that Miley will not compound any mistake by adding a walk. A first inning walk can be deadly to any NRFI play, so Miley’s 5.3% walk rate is enough to stand behind.
