It is hard enough returning from a week vacation, let alone on a Saturday, so let’s just chalk it up to jetlag. That trip from the Poconos to Philadelphia is a killer. The good news is we are up to 74-60 on the year and have three juicy first innings to attack. Monday’s slate is a little different, with more of an extra-medium-sized 10-game slate. Let’s look at the best NRFI picks, targeting weakness in starting pitching or slumping bats.
Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs YRFI (-120)
Things just have not been the same for Drew Smyly. Following a couple of steady starts in June, tonight’s starter for the Cubs has been rocked in his last three outings, where four hits and three earned runs over 3.2 innings was his best start. Washington certainly will have opportunities in the top half, as Smyly, with his lowly 19.5% strikeout rate, has been about average pitching to contact. MacKenzie Gore has not seen the third inning in each of his last two starts – the most recent due to rain, the one prior due to the Phillies. Gore is striking people out; it is just that is all he is doing well. His 27.8% strikeout rate is negated by his .266 xBA, .346 xwOBA and 10.1% walk rate. Both teams will see baserunning opportunities.
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers NRFI (-105)
It is much easier to push an NRFI play with Shane McClanahan on the hill than the opposite, even if his Rays would be dealing the damage at the plate. The Rays are on the road and facing Dane Dunning – the real star of this bet. McClanahan has been fine – great with a 26% strikeout rate but just fine elsewhere. He should be able to locate some early pitches and avoid any true jam. Even if he does find himself in trouble, McClanahan can fan his way out of it. Dunning needs to step up and hold off the Rays for just a single inning. His strikeout rate is atrocious at 15.1%, but he has been OK in other spots – enough to survive with his xBA and 6.5% walk rate. This lineup is rarely easy to face, but the Rays are on the road and might need an inning to truly settle. That is where Dunning comes in.
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners YRFI (+100)
The pitching matchup in Seattle does not scream YRFI, but it is definitely an audible sound with the right number. Logan Gilbert plays host with a 24.8% strikeout rate and a strong 4.4% walk rate. Gilbert does not have the best matchup against the Twins lineup – hitting for average and limiting strikeouts for the most part up top. It is going to take a lot for him to keep anyone off the basepath. Sonny Gray weighs in as a lighter version of Gilbert: A lesser strikeout rate, a higher walk rate and ultimately a little worse off against contact. Fading Gray here versus a team that does offer some strikeouts is due to a road start and Seattle jumping some early pitches from Gray.
