Welcome back to work! Hopefully you enjoyed your long holiday weekend, or if you are smarter than me, took the rest of the week to enjoy more off time. The NRFI schedule doesn’t stop nor do we at OddsShopper. We continue to build on the 65-54 record on the year with three more NRFI or YRFI plays for Wednesday’s slate. Here are the top 3 plays of the night!
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Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins YRFI
This is a typical matchup with one pitcher just dominating versus a new(er) arm this year. While Alec Marsh is making just his second start of the year, there’s enough on him to deduce he’s in trouble. Pablo Lopez is on the other side, dominating with serious numbers to back, but still faces an intriguing matchup despite being at home. Marsh got hammered by the Dodgers and worked incredibly hard for his five strikeouts.
That may be a bigger issue tonight especially with walks in play agains the Twins. Even Joey Gallo with an absurd strikeout rate is also great at drawing walks. Lopez has a 30:7 K to BB rate and is limiting opposing average and xWOBA. It’s not going to be easy for anyone, especially one of the worst teams in baseball. Don’t be surprised to see the Royals try and jump on some pitches early in the count to put some pressure on Lopez. Either way, the Twins should handle business and cash this ticket.
Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox YRFI
Another pitching matchup where someone is just going to make a mistake in the first inning and both offenses are more than capable of taking advantage. Jon Gray on the road in Fenway taking on Rafael Devers and the Red Sox is a problem. A problem for Gray and his 21:7.8 K to BB rate and .254 xBA. Boston should have little problem getting to Gray, it’s just a matter of how aggressive they come out versus working counts.
Gray doesn’t give up a ton of walks but is susceptible and one baserunner may easily open the floodgates. The Sox send Brayan Bello who also deals with a limited K:BB rate (21.8 : 7) and a difficult first-inning matchup. Both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien rarely strikeout, putting an enormous amount on Bello to pitch to contact rather than blow them back. It’s not easy for either pitcher as last night’s theme of a first inning run should continue.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers NRFI
Nothing says, “bounce back” like a shutout of epic proportions. While the public shouldn’t expect a total blanking of the Pirates there will be some regression with their production. While Osvaldo Bido is making just his fifth start of the year, there’s enough on him to deduce he’s in trouble. Bido wasn’t blown away last start and did get the win – as little of importance as that may be – but one thing lacked in his start; strikeouts.
Without the ability to strikeout anyone on Los Angeles in the first, Bido may load up the bases by hit or walk. Bobby Miller doesn’t have the knockdown stuff for a super high K rate, but is pitching well to contact and should find good spots against the top third of the Pirates lineup. This was + money at the time of writing this and should be slammed if that number is still available!
