Thursday’s MLB slate is sure to appeal to anyone who enjoys taking their time on a delicious spread. The action starts just after 12 p.m. ET and carries into the night in Oakland — not bad for a 10-game slate. The approach on today’s plays focuses on matchups that have at least one of two pitchers in perfect positions to carry first innings. It is a key to succeeding in the NRFI market, and we are 77-63 on the year. Here are the best NRFI bets across the board today.
Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners YRFI (+100)
There is no reason to avoid the obvious here — Pablo Lopez is a machine. His strikeout rate, xBA, and xwOBA are all off the charts, and he is facing a team that almost enjoys striking out. George Kirby, however, is not quite achieving those marks and is highly susceptible to getting beaten in the early inning. His 20.7% strikeout rate will not hold in any early jam, which the Twins are certainly capable of creating. Kirby can slide fast in the first if he gives up an early baserunner, so expect the Twins to carry the damage here. As always, the best time to get to any pitcher as hot as Lopez is the first inning before he settles into an unstoppable groove. That is worth any play still at plus money for a first inning score.
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays NRFI (-115)
Do not expect Tyler Glasnow to struggle into any groove as tonight’s starter for the Rays. He enters with an astounding 35.1% strikeout rate, which is good enough for two things, the first being his ability to either strike out the side 1-2-3 or fan his out of any early sweat. That opens up the second reason, which is Glasnow’s ability to overcome any other area of concern — most notably an xwOBA of .335 on the year. Kyle Gibson needs to carry this bet and has a path or two around his 18.4% strikeout rate. Depending on tonight’s lineup, there are a couple of Rays hitters who strike out enough to aid Gibson’s cause, which can at the very least limit baserunners. Gibson has pitched above his numbers in the past and will need to just hold on for the first inning.
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics NRFI (-115)
Hogan Harris is going to keep the Houston Astros from crossing the plate — but only in the first inning. The second inning should be a smash fest, but it is OK to expect a scoreless opener with Harris. He has limited opposing hitters to a .266 xBA and isn’t incapable of striking anyone out — he still has a 19.2% strikeout rate. Houston is going to take an inning to get used to Harris then light him up as early as the next frame. J.P. France is charged with keeping a lifeless Oakland team off the scoreboard. France is capable, but it is probably going to be a sweat, mainly because he is a guy with a 16.9% strikeout rate dealing to a team with nothing left to lose. France has limited walks — only a 7.1% walk rate — so that should help keep people off the bags.
