The weekend starts now! No, that is not an excuse to throw your phone out the window and head to the beach for one final weekend of summer. It is a chance to jump on some major value for first inning totals, especially as new series kick off Friday across MLB. There are some pitching matchups that present great plus-money opportunity as well as some pathways to tailing some hot offenses. It is the best sweat in baseball, more than just one pitch and less than a full game — or even first five! Here are the three best NRFI and YRFI bets today.
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Best YRFI and NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets YRFI (+104, BetMGM)
This is the first of three plays that are at least +100 or better, each with a different underlying reason. The main reason here at Citi Field is actually the road starter in Charlie Morton. Nothing else really makes sense, and even that is a bit of a stretch. Morton is not dominant across the board — enjoying a 24.3% strikeout rate balanced by a .340 xwOBA and .260 xBA. Those are not great numbers to contact despite how bad the Mets are right now. There is nothing a greater microcosm for that than their starter tonight in Tylor Megill. The Mets are going to have to swing at every pitch hoping to connect and outscore the damage done by Megill. These are just awful numbers for the Mets arm tonight: 17.4% strikeout rate to a 11.1% walk rate, .380 xwOBA and .291 xBA. If he is not walking guys, then he is giving up baserunners off contact. There is no chance the Braves will pass up an opportunity for a first inning score.
St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals NRFI (+110, BetMGM)
The author of this piece is fully aware of who the pitching matchup is, so please do not blame any editor for missing the obvious — both of these guys stink. But so do their respective lineups and defenses behind them. Just because Adam Wainwright and Dylan Coleman are bad does not mean bad lineups or struggling hitters will take advantage. It is one of the biggest misnomers when betting NRFI plays and is more of a trap here. At the very least, it is worth a shot at good plus money that both pitchers survive bad hitting. Coleman is an opener and has kept the first inning scoreless in four of his last five starts — including two straight. That is not as terrible as his numbers would indicate. Wainwright is struggling to strike out anyone, but his saving grace is limiting loud contact — another area that can limit any early baserunner. Ultimately the bet relies on the pitchers being slightly less bad than the hitters. With these two teams, it is an easy leap to take.
Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners YRFI (+104, BetMGM)
The Orioles have to be a little tired heading into this game. They just ended a series at home with the Astros and head across the country to open a weekend series in Seattle. They also get a rested Luis Castillo and pen behind him, as Seattle had Thursday off. Kyle Gibson is the main target here, entering tonight’s game with a 19.9% strikeout rate and struggling to pitch to contact. J.P. Crawford is out for Seattle, but that should not throw off Seattle atop the opening frame. Castillo should relish the return home, as he was rocked in his last start against the Angels, so even a friendly setting will not guarantee a flawless first.
