The weekend opens with some intriguing series around the diamond, and value is already popping in the first inning. Last night’s 2-0 sweep on the small slate was fun, but this is where the real work begins — identifying opening inning value on totals with teams pushing for playoff hopes. There is the opposite too, as was the focus last night, when a team has zero incentive to win outside of a small and early spoiler role. Let’s hit the three best NRFI and YRFI bets for Friday, Aug. 18, focusing on some starting pitching and struggling hitters.
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Best YRFI and NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals YRFI (-115, BetMGM)
This NL East clash pits two pitchers who are still feeling their way on their respective teams. Michael Lorenzen has been pitching all year but is making just his third start for his new team — coming off a no-hitter in his last outing. Joan Adon is making just his fifth start this year for Washington. He has failed to begin the fourth inning in three of his previous four appearances and now faces a Phillies offense that is slowly waking from a slump. Adon has been victimized earlier in games — as is evident by his quick hooks — and might give up a lead-off walk to Kyle Schwarber. Lorenzen is certainly due for some regression, as the Nationals will be aggressive at the plate early in this game, trying to unsettle Lorenzen following his previous gem. Either the Phillies or Nationals will generate some offense and cross the plate in the first.
Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers YRFI (-110, BetMGM)
The Marlins have a decent chance of winning this game and should be looked at as legit threats to cover the run line. Both Tony Gonsolin and Sandy Alcantara face a daunting task, however, against left-handed opponents. While Alcantara should fare better, at least based on recent history, it might not be enough to prevent this Dodgers team from striking early. Gonsolin is working with a 19% strikeout rate on the year, and Alcantara is marginally better at just under 21%. The power numbers have not been there, and each team has at least one ridiculous at-bat coming in the first inning. Alcantara might not go directly at Mookie Betts, while Gonsolin is susceptible to an early walk. Both are good pitchers but not great this year. That is enough to bet on the offense.
Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds NRFI (+105, BetMGM)
The last play requires a heavy emphasis on some home cooking. Cincinnati will utilize a bullpen game with Brett Kennedy serving as the opener. The Blue Jays will throw Jose Berrios to limit the Reds in their smaller park. The odds may reflect a longer shot at this inning staying scoreless, but there should not be emphasis on the ballpark like there is with Coors Field. So just because the game is played in Cincinnati does not mean a first inning score. Berrios has the tougher matchup on the road against the Reds but has a decent path in striking out a batter or two. With a 22% strikeout rate, Berrios will face a swing-happy Reds team offering up some strikeout chances. Kennedy’s last outing was a two-inning scoreless affair against the Pirates. That should carry over into this game and the second inning.
