Thursday tends to mark the end of a series, sometimes a getaway game before an important weekend stretch. That opens up value in first inning totals, as does any struggling pitcher thrown into that same equation. The MLB action is spread throughout the day, but there is a great opportunity to cash some checks with the later action. Be it pitching or hitting, the goal in every NRFI or YRFI play is to play off what is most consistent, be it the good or the bad. A reminder that OddsShopper has the best lines for this market — and they will give you 70% off your first month! Let’s see the three best NRFI and YRFI bets today.
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Best YRFI and NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-109, BetMGM)
There are two key assumptions with this bet, the first being the biggest ask in Patrick Corbin pitching a scoreless first. The second simply requires this game be played rather than postponed due to rain. As inconsistent as Aaron Nola has been, there is a good shot he can enter this game under control and handle the top third of the Nationals. He is still striking out batters to the tune of a 25.1% strikeout rate and still pitching OK to well against contact. This is not a full-game nor a first-five-innings bet on Nola; it is just backing him before any unravelling. Corbin is not good — no real way around this — but he has found ways around giving up runs in the first inning. The Phillies have a major power spot atop their lineup in Kyle Schwarber, but is an easy out if not jacking the ball over the wall. The Phillies also come off watching Michael Lorenzen throw a no-hitter, so it is hard to think there is no lingering effect from any celebrations.
St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays YRFI (-125, BetMGM)
These are the same two plays from last night except we swapped the results. An NRFI from last night should flip to a run in the opening frame, as the Cardinals just cannot escape how bad their starter is in Matthew Liberatore. Tampa should get out unscathed, but Zack Littell is just recently stretched out and has not had a long enough resume to be fully confident. There are still some heavy bats atop that Cardinals lineup despite their season being over for the past two months. There is no true concern that Liberatore will make a mistake, it is more the opposite — extreme confidence. A 12.6% strikeout to 9.8% walk rate is just the beginning of how rough it has been for Liberatore. Adding in a .316 xBA and .409 xwOBA should be the confidence boost needed to tail this bet.
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox NRFI (+110, BetMGM)
James Paxton is going to have to settle. Austin Cox just needs to stay the course. Those are the only two things that matter with this NRFI play tonight in Boston. Paxton has been a tad shaky over his past three to seven starts — good numbers but not dominant. His past two outings were cut short after five innings mainly due to getting tagged. The Royals may not be an easy strikeout, but Paxton is pitching well enough to contact that he may not need to rely on the strikeout. Still dealing with a .214 xBA and .281 xwOBA, Paxton is a tough matchup for the Royals to get on base. Cox will serve as an opener and has given up just one run over his last four starts in this role. Boston also lacks strikeouts atop their lineup, but those guys are not drawing walks either. Cox may give up a baserunner, but there is a strong shot it stays scoreless after one.
