Baseball returned from its mid-season Classic on Friday as series opened up across the league. The NRFI took a week off, leaving you with a 2-1 Saturday and up to 73-58 on the year. There are plenty of games including the back end of a double-header, allowing for great value in the first innings. Be it pitching or hitting, there are vulnerable spots to target. Here are the top three best NRFI/YRFI bets and plays today.
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Best NRFI/YRFI Bets & Picks Today July 15
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners YRFI
Not much is separating these two teams especially with a Tigers win last night. The pitching matchup leaves little to be desired as George Kirby squares off against Michael Lorenzen. Neither have been promising despite both carrying fantastic BB rates – both under 6% on they year.
The issue is how fast either offense can get going with their bats, as Kirby should be a willing host with a .260 xBA on the season. He’s not striking many guys out and is getting hit when forced to pitch in the zone. It’s not an abomination, that term is best reserved for Lorenzen. Dealing with just an 18.9% K rate and .262 xBA, Lorenzen doesn’t stand much chance to keep Seattle off the basepath – really in any inning let alone the opener.
Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles NRFI
Which matters more in the grand scheme of first inning sweats, Braxton Garrett continuing his dominant stretch or Kyle Gibson pulling out of a nosedive? This is like one of those agonizing questions at the end of some RPG dialogue where the wrong answer might waste the last 36 hours of gameplay. But then after reading the online walkthrough it’s evident that either answer brings the same result. Same here.
If Garrett continues his recent tear – 3.00 ERA and .90 WHIP over his last seven starts – it might not matter if Gibson looks born-again on the mound. If Gibson can just steady the fall – 1-8 over his last nine starts against the NL – then Garrett is allowed a little leeway. The reality is both will show some regression to the mean, which helps the NRFI play more than anything. Miami see Garrett come in with 54 Ks over his last 8 starts, enough to power through the first inning, and Gibson should take advantage of an easier matchup, especially in the early frame.
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds YRFI
Throwing OddsShopper Premium a bone here because they found some market value at Great American. The ballpark alone screams a look at a YRFI on pretty much any day, but it might get overlooked because of tonight’s pitching matchup. Andrew Abbott has been stellar with an impressive 28.9 K rate and an absurd .207 xBA against. It’s been easier than not for Abbott to just mow down opposing hitters.
Milwaukee comes in with only two guys that give off massive concerns about strikeout rates – Joey Wiemer and Brian Anderson. Even Willy Adames has made up for Ks with a high xBA. While this won’t neutralize Abbott, it just makes it way more difficult to blow by the Brewers. Milwaukee sends Freddy Peralta who should be readily equipped to deal with the top third of the Reds lineup – and the confines of the ballpark. Peralta is fine this year, with a strong 27% K rate coupled with a .228 xBA. The Reds won’t know what hit them until at least the third inning.
