No need to bury the lead, a 3-0 night yesterday puts the season record at 70-55. The Friday slate provides some fabulous areas of value as new series open up heading into the weekend. Targeting a weak starting pitcher or struggling offense is easy, but those bets won’t come cheap. Some of picking the best NRFI or YRFI bets requires a bit of a stretch, but nothing teetering on the impossible. Here are the three best pathways to success for first-inning totals today!
First-inning sweats are some of the best in the MLB betting business. If you’re looking for the best NRFI/YRFI picks, OddsShopper has you covered. Check out our guide to NRFI/YRFI betting and come back each day for the best NRFI/YRFI bets — we post daily NRFI/YRFI articles, and our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to find NRFI/YRFI picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best NRFI/YRFI Bets & Picks Today: Finding Value in the First Inning
New York Mets at San Diego Padres NRFI
Sometimes the price is worth the cost of admission, and in this case, it’s worth the cost of a scoreless first inning. RHP Justin Verlander has the tougher matchup, facing this Padres team on the road, but he should be able to get through a near-flawless opening frame.
Verlander’s strikeout rate isn’t as dominant as it was in prior years, but it’s still strong at just south of 21%. He’s limiting walks and batting average allowed. His issue would be wearing down the second or even third time through the lineup, but not coming out strong in the first.
The same is expected from RHP Yu Darvish. With a 25.8% K to 7.3% BB rate, Darvish should be able to find some sneaky strikeouts hidden atop the Mets lineup. This total is low for a reason and should stay low after one.
Best NRFI Pick: Mets-Padres -125 at BetMGM
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers YRFI
This game should feature plenty of offense even if it comes in spurts. The Reds are scorching hot right now heading into a matchup against RHP Corbin Burnes. Burnes must do a little more than rely on strikeouts to cool off Cincy. He heads into tonight with an average 23% K to 8% BB rate. Burnes has pitched well to contact, but this isn’t an easy feat, especially with Elly De La Cruz lurking in the clean-up spot.
LHP Andrew Abbott has done nothing but dazzle, holding onto a stellar 29.4% strikeout rate. Even more impressive is his .185 xBA and .258 xWOBA — at times, Abbott has been just unhittable. This isn’t so much a “fade Abbott” bet as it is knowing his most difficult inning in Milwaukee will be the first. It’s always a little tougher on the road — just don’t be surprised if the home team gives up the first score of the game.
Best YRFI Pick: Reds-Brewers +110 at BetMGM
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins YRFI
Baltimore was a gracious host to the New York Yankees last night, allowing the Bombers one run in a 15-score game. The O’s are so potent and can break out at any point, but tonight that should come in the first inning. They are ridiculously tough out to strike out, which doesn’t bode well for RHP Bailey Ober despite his 24.9% strikeout rate. There aren’t many ways around Baltimore’s early batters, which should leave Ober in an early jam.
LHP Cole Irvin is charged with stopping the home team in keeping them off the bag in the bottom half of the inning. Irvin doesn’t instill much confidence with a 19% K to 8.8% BB rate, and it doesn’t look much better with his batting average allowed. The Twins should see at least one guy get on base, enough to for Irvin to start cracking.
Best YRFI Pick: Orioles-Twins -120 at BetMGM
