Monday’s nine-game slate for Major League Baseball might seem a little light on the surface, but it is anything but lacking in value — especially early in games. Identifying the best NRFI or YRFI plays requires attention on pitching and top thirds of lineups. In some cases, like where we are in mid-August, teams have given up and play like it on the diamond. Sometimes even good pitchers are overvalued on an NRFI play, opening something up on the other side. It is one of the best sweats in baseball, showcasing starting pitching and a team’s best bats. Here are the three best NRFI and YRFI bets today.
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Best YRFI and NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Oakland Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals NRFI (-107, BetMGM)
Tonight’s game in St. Louis does not offer a ton of confidence behind the pitching matchup, but neither should anyone at the plate. Runs will be scored at some point but do not expect any early flood gates opening in the first inning. Miles Mikolas is not great, and J.P. Sears is pitching moderately better. Mikolas and Sears avoid walks like some of the best pitchers in baseball, so avoiding an early mistake or compounding an early one will be key. Sears has pitched better to contact and has a 22.4% strikeout rate — better than Mikolas at only 16.5% on the year. As bad as Mikolas is and Sears has been at times, the bats get zero benefit of the doubt here. They will need a couple of times through the lineup to get some runs on the board, at the very least the second inning. The pitching actually trumps the hitting here, as difficult as that may seem with Mikolas on the mound.
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals NRFI (-110, BetMGM)
Logan Gilbert will offer confidence and more to anyone backing his side of an NRFI. The Mariners are watching Gilbert mow down batters to the tune of a 25.1% to 4.4% strikeout to walk rate, adding a .295 xwOBA. Despite being on the road, Gilbert should have little issue navigating through the first three Royals batters. The other side is the bigger concern, with Brady Singer needing some help. It is actually a situation that fits Singer better than the Mariners bats, at least through the first inning. Singer isn’t striking out a lot of batters but will face a swing-happy Seattle team that could offer up at least one to start the game.
Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants NRFI (+110, BetMGM)
There is absolutely zero reason to expect anyone to cross the plate in the first inning in San Francisco tonight. In fact, it would be a shock if anyone even got on base. Tyler Glasnow’s only real roadblock is starting on the road, but he can sit back and rely on that 34.5% strikeout rate. Ryan Walker does not have the strikeout rate as Glasnow — still strong at 25.9% — but is pitching to contact significantly better. Walker’s numbers are insanely good, including a .250 xwOBA and .205 xBA. Neither offense is going to catch either one of these pitchers making an early mistake, and both will have to grind them down in this game. That bodes extremely well for a scoreless opener.
