Two big wins and a loss last night bumps up the overall record to 57-45. Bypassing the early games, let’s focus on some of the later action for first-inning plays. There are two pitching matchups worth targeting and a road team struggling to do much, that may have just gotten lucky last night. Yes, we will return to the scene of the crime – the lone loss last night being at Dodgers Stadium. Here are the top three NRFI or YRFI plays of the night!
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Best NRFI/YRFI Bets Today | July 6
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees YRFI
Neither one of tonight’s pitchers in this matchup is doing anything special. The lone argument would be Kyle Bradish reminding the world of his 6.5% BB rate.
While it’s certainly nothing to scoff at, Bradish is about league average with a 23% K rate, and is getting hit far too often. Louis Severino should be a welcoming host to the Orioles, with an 18 to 9% K to walk rate. Both are struggling to pitch to contact and are below average in xBA – Severino’s being over .300 on the year.
A barely capable offense could walk into Yankee Stadium or host Bradish and score a run. This shouldn’t be rocket science for an Orioles team that can still torch weak pitching. Bradish is going to have to work to strikeout more than one batter in the opening frame, putting a ton of pressure on him to limit mistakes.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers YRFI
Pittsburgh ruined the 3-0 sweep but no hard feelings here. In fact, one of the best plays across any first inning is expecting another run in tonight’s opening frame.
Johan Oviedo has the toughest part of the matchup but it’s not going to be a cake walk for Julio Urias either. Looking at the Pirates hurler tonight, Oviedo is working off a 19% to 9% K to BB rate against one of the best top halves of any lineup in baseball. Maybe Mookie Betts is preparing for his bid to win the Home Run Derby, or simply another chance for anyone in the first three slots to showcase some power.
There is certainly a better chance that Oviedo gives up an early baserunner rather than LA going down 1-2-3. Urias hasn’t been as dominant as last year but is still a quality pitcher. Pittsburgh was able to jump on a mistake pitch in last night’s first inning, which they may see again as Urias won’t strike out the side.
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins NRFI
It all comes down to one person in this one, Jack Flaherty. Just get through the first without giving up a walk and this is going to be easy money. His 22.2% to 12.1% K to BB rate is too erratic to pinpoint one thing that can help or hurt him, instead he’s been able to limit opposing slugging with timely strikeouts. Miami can be limited at the start of games as it should take a trip through the lineup to start wearing down Flaherty.
Eury Perez has a fantastic combination of a 28% K rate combined with limiting opposing xBA to just .209 on the year. The Cardinals have been struggling but it’s not like they are losing games 13-10. The bet cashing is based on Flaherty limiting mistakes – walks – and Perez starting off strong. Both should make a comfortable first inning for the under.
