Wednesday’s slate certainly offers a typical late-season balance of desperation and streaky performances. Those can be positive too; a team can be smoking the ball at the plate or a pitcher can come in dominant off his last few starts. Either side presents a great strategy to target for any NRFI or YRFI plays. The great news for tonight is three games jump out with solid value, allowing for focus on both great pitching and timely hitting. Here are the three best NRFI and YRFI bets for Aug. 16 — a market readily available on OddsShopper Premium, where you can get 70% off your first month!
First-inning bets are some of the most enjoyable sweats in the MLB betting business. If you want to start making money on your NRFI and YRFI picks, OddsShopper has you covered. Check out our guide to NRFI and YRFI betting and come back each day for the best NRFI and YRFI bets — we post daily NRFI and YRFI articles, and our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from industry-leading betting model to find NRFI and YRFI picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best YRFI and NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays YRFI (+112, BetMGM)
Aaron Nola is struggling this year. That is about as nice as one can put it. The reality is that when Nola’s been on there has been little drop from his dominant stretches over the previous seasons. The other side of that coin is giving up multiple runs in the first inning tonight in Toronto. It has been bad enough for fans to call for another arm to take Nola’s spot in the playoff rotation. The biggest point is Nola’s inconsistencies alone offer a path for the home team to take advantage. The Phillies come off a disappointing loss at the plate but still have a couple of bats who can hit for power or draw walks. Kevin Gausman’s 32.5% strikeout rate is nothing short of fantastic, and he most likely will get two strikeouts in the first. But that far from closes the door on any power hitter for the Phillies turning on an early mistake or working a couple of counts for walks.
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds NRFI (-112, BetMGM)
It is always a difficult sell for an NRFI play in Cincinnati. Similar to Coors Field, the ballpark funnels in runs. Tonight’s pitching matchup is a great reason to jump on the other side of logic, mainly focusing on numbers and data. Andrew Abbott is lights out for Cincinnati, absolutely dealing this year with a 27% strikeout rate and .289 xwOBA. He will have to work a little harder against the top third of the Guardians lineup — not the easiest strikeout team — but nothing that would draw immediate concern. Abbott has pitched great to contact on top of gassing batters via the strikeout. Noah Syndergaard has not been awful since coming to Cleveland; he has only been rocked one time over three starts, giving up just one run in each of the other two outings. There is plenty here to back a scoreless first in Cincinnati.
Oakland Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals YRFI (-121, BetMGM)
Going to the trusty OddsShopper Tool finds the last play in St. Louis. It is a shopped line, so there is no true need for analysis — it is why the tool is such a great help. Looking at the game itself, it is not hard to see why either — if not both — team will cough up at least one run. Paul Blackburn has not been brutal for Oakland, at least not as bad as the team around him. The problem is a road start against a team that still limits strikeouts atop their lineup. Matthew Liberatore is atrocious at limiting much of anything in a positive way. There are not many bright spots with this Cardinals pitcher, including a 14.4% strikeout rate to an 8.7% walk rate. If Oakland somehow manages to trip over its own cleats and not score, leave it to Blackburn to find a way in the bottom half.
