The Orioles travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays in a huge American League East matchup. Baltimore continues to roll at the top of the division, while Toronto is clinging to dear life to the third Wild Card spot. With playoff implications on the line, we will turn to the OddsShopper’s Premium Tool to find the best bets for this matchup. Let’s dive into the best Orioles-Blue Jays bets for Wednesday.
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Best MLB Orioles-Blue Jays Bet & Prediction: Anthony Santander
Odds via BetRivers
Baltimore Orioles: +105| Toronto Blue Jays: -124
Baltimore Orioles +1.5: -205| Toronto Blue Jays -1.5: +163
Over 8.5: -108 | Under 8.5: -110
There are a couple spots in this matchup with comparable metrics in the OddsShopper’s Premium Tool. Both Anthony Santander and Austin Hays are getting 3% EV and an equal OS rating of 2 for their runs overs as Baltimore takes on Yusei Kikuchi. However, Santander gets the slight edge here for two reasons: One, his 45% win expectancy just edges out Hays’ 44%, and two, he is likely hitting third in the order, whereas Hays has moved all around from leadoff to cleanup to seventh. If Hays is in the leadoff spot by some chance, he will be the runs play here. For now, Santander leads the pack.
Kikuchi has improved a bit from where he was early in the season when he was striking out a ton of hitters and letting up a lot of runs. His ERA and ERA+ are now at career bests this year. However, his 4.78 FIP — compared to his 3.79 ERA — indicates he is getting pretty lucky with the runs he is (or is not) giving up. Kikuchi is allowing 42.6% hard contact (league average is 39.7%) and a BABIP over .300, so when he does allow the ball into play, the results have been good for hitters.
Few lineups have more depth than the Orioles have. With power up and down the order, there are going to be a lot of spots to attack Kikuchi and take advantage of the hard contact he does allow. Santander is a good place to look because he leads the Orioles in home runs — which would clear over 0.5 runs with one swing — and he also will hit in front of Hays and Gunnar Henderson, who both have over 40 RBIs on the season. Santander’s on-base percentage is solid enough to bet on him getting on base and letting the rest of the strong Baltimore lineup drive him in.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Santander below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for Santander over 0.5 runs at +124, so this bet is beating the market at +130. It is also getting a solid 3% despite the 45% win expectancy, leading to a recommended bet size of $8. As such, Santander’s runs over earns the top value spot for Wednesday’s Orioles-Blue Jays game.
Best Orioles-Blue Jays MLB Bet: Anthony Santander Over 0.5 Runs (+130, BetRivers)
