The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles will square off on Apple TV+ tonight, and bettors eager for exposure to this game have a pair of middling pitchers to fade. Let’s dive into the betting odds for Wednesday’s Orioles-Blue Jays action to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet.
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Best Orioles-Blue Jays Bet & Prediction: Fade Yusei Kikuchi
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Baltimore Orioles: +130 | Toronto Blue Jays: -165
Over 9.5: -105 | Under 9.5: -115
I don’t have much confidence in either pitcher tonight, and the books clearly don’t, either. The total for this one sits at a lofty 9.5. Baltimore’s starter, RHP Kyle Gibson (4-3), owns a 4.67 ERA. Toronto’s starter, LHP Yusei Kikuchi (5-0), owns a 3.89 ERA. Both pitchers hold a grade below 50 in FiveThirtyEight’s rolling game score, with Gibson (48.4) slightly ahead of Kikuchi (47.2).
The advanced stats are less friendly to Gibson and Kikuchi. Gibson owns a 5.18 xERA; Kikuchi owns a 4.98 xERA — both worse than their actual average. This points to some regression in their future, which could help both offenses put enough runs on the board to go over this total.
The batting splits also point to value on the over. Toronto’s offense has performed much the same against right- and left-handed pitchers — the Blue Jays own a .740 OPS against lefties and a .734 OPS against righties. Baltimore’s offense hasn’t been as balanced, but that won’t matter tonight, as the Orioles own a fantastic .803 OPS against lefties like Kikuchi.
Last year, two consecutive bad starts against the Orioles led to the Blue Jays moving Kikuchi to their bullpen. He allowed five earned runs in 5.0 innings last August before allowing three in 3.1 innings the next week. Kikuchi came in as a reliever twice more against the Orioles that season and allowed two more earned runs in 3.2 innings pitched.
Let’s trust the Orioles to score at least three runs in the first five innings. They have accomplished this feat in Kikuchi’s last two starts against them and should do so again tonight. The Orioles rank a compelling fifth in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .337 and should have the offensive firepower to get on the board early.
Best Orioles-Blue Jays MLB Bet: Orioles F5 Over 2.5 Runs +120 at DraftKings
