The Orioles travel about 100 miles northeast to take on the Phillies in Philadelphia, and ahead of this interleague matchup, we are going to hit up OddsShopper’s Premium Tool to find the best bets. Right now a lot is pointing to the seemingly unstoppable Baltimore squad, while Philadelphia is just trying to keep its nose in the postseason picture. Let’s dive into the best Orioles-Phillies bets for Monday.
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Best MLB Orioles-Phillies Bet & Prediction: Cristopher Sanchez
Odds via PointsBet
Baltimore Orioles: +105 | Philadelphia Phillies: -125
Over 9.5: -110 | Under 9.5: -110
The Phillies playoff push is catching the Orioles at a pretty bad time. Baltimore is rolling and has moved to four games up on the Rays in the loss column, giving them the best record in the American League. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 11.5 back of the Braves for the NL East lead and half a game behind the Giants and Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card spot. The Phillies need every win they can get at this point.
Today they send lefty Cristopher Sanchez to the mound, and Sanchez has pitched quite well since his return to the rotation in mid-June, posting a 3.06 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. That said, he has been pretty modest with his strikeout numbers, averaging a career-low 7.6 per nine innings and a modest 21.6% strikeout rate. That latter number dips to 19.3% against righties, of which the Orioles project to have eight today.
And though Sanchez has beaten today’s 4.5 line in over half his starts, he has been super up and down with that number and has yet to pitch in the seventh. If he maintains a pace of 7.6 strikeouts per nine, he will need to go six innings to reach five strikeouts today, and he has done that only twice in seven outings. Plus, Baltimore has a below-average strikeout rate and above-average power, which could set up Sanchez for an earlier exit.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Sanchez below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for Sanchez under 4.5 strikeouts at -120, so this bet is beating the market at -115. This is also getting a solid 55% expected win rate and 2% EV. That is leading to a recommended bet size of $8 and gives Sanchez’s strikeout under the top value spot for Monday’s Orioles-Phillies game.
Best Orioles-Phillies MLB Bet: Cristopher Sanchez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115, PointsBet)
