The San Diego Padres started this season with high hopes. The Padres made it to the NLCS in 2022 and doubled-down by spending big money to keep a star-studded roster. Unfortunately, things didn’t pan out and the Pads’ are playing for next year in the 2023 season’s final weeks. They’ll get a chance to go out fighting against the division rival Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday Night. Let’s take a look at the Padres-Dodgers odds and use the OddsShopper model to make a prediction and pick the best MLB bet.
Best MLB Padres-Dodgers Bet & Prediction: Xander Bogaerts
Padres-Dodgers Odds, via PointsBet
Padres: +145 | Dodgers: -175
Padres +1.5: -140 | Dodgers -1.5: +115
Over 10: -115 | Under 10: -115
The Padres have had a rough season, but they’ll at least have the benefit of playing against one of the Dodgers’ weakest pitchers on Monday. Gavin Stone takes the hill for Los Angeles. The rookie hurler is a highly-regarded arm in the Dodgers’ organization, but he hasn’t been able to put things together in his first big league stint.
Stone will be making sixth appearance of 2023 and third start on Monday. He has a 10.50 ERA and 2.28 WHIP in eighteen innings and he has walked eight batters compared to just ten strikeouts. Things haven’t been pretty for Stone, but the team is still showing confidence in his ability. There’s good reason for that. Stone is the fifth ranked prospect in the Dodgers’ organization and he comes in at 79th out of the top-100 prospects in baseball according to MLB.com.
The Padres’ have a lineup chalk full of big names that have underperformed in 2023. Leading the group is Xander Bogaerts. The veteran shortstop came over from the Red Sox at last season’s trade deadline, helping the team in its NLCS run. This year has not gone as well for him. Bogaerts is batting .269 with seventeen home runs. He has an OPS of .755 and a 3.4 WAR.
Stats aside, the most important number is the price on Bogaerts MLB prop bets at PointsBet. Bettors can grab Bogaerts to go under 1.5 hits for -160. This Padres-Dodgers bet has a 3% positive expected value. The true odds of the bet are -172 with its 63% win rate. Those numbers make it worth staking about 1.5% of your bank roll if you’re using the full Kelly Criterion.
Best Padres-Dodgers MLB Bet: Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits (-160) at PointsBet
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