Blake Snell didn’t want the first half of the MLB season to end. He was pitching like the best pitcher in baseball and has moved himself into the NL CY Young Award discussion. Snell headlines our top player prop in game one of the Padres-Phillies doubleheader. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder! Nonetheless, onto our best MLB player props today.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Blake Snell| July 15
Blake Snell Prop O/U 7.5 Strikeouts
Something lit a switch in Blake Snell in June. He registered a 0.87 ERA and punched out 53 batters in 31 innings pitched. Opponents hit just .124 against him! His opponent today in the Philadelphia Phillies is a familiar foe but that bodes well for us bettors as he has solid strikeout numbers against this projected lineup.
To no surprise, the issue with Snell is his command. He gets himself into deep counts and nears the top of the league in BB%. Even with his high walk percentage, the strikeouts are still there. Luckily for us, the Phillies have the third lowest BB% against LHP in the last 30 days. Those limited walks have resulted in the seventh-highest K rate against LHP during that span. Last night teammate Yu Darvish ran himself into seven 3-2 counts and still reached nine K’s.
On the topic of the Phillies’ strikeout numbers against LHP, let’s dive into Snell’s history against this lineup. Kyle Schwarber and Trae Turner have seen Snell a combined 19 times and have struck out in eight of those at-bats. Turner is coming off a three strikeout game and continues to not look right. As we move down the order, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto all possess a K rate of at least 30% against Snell. He’ll see the middle of the order at least twice as his pitch count hovers around 100 but the Padres bullpen is relatively fresh with Yu Darvish giving them six innings last night.
Snell is over this line in six of his last seven starts and will look to continue his dominance that jolted him up the NL CY Young ladder. With Darvish going over his strikeout line, that made it 17 of the last 21 RHP to go over their MLB player prop line.
Best Padres-Phillies MLB Player Prop: Blake Snell Over 7.5 Strikeouts -119 (Caesars)
