The Philadelphia Phillies have now won four straight games against the Chicago Cubs. They won’t sweep the season series — Chicago took the first meeting between these teams — but they’ve put an impressive run together nonetheless. Let’s dive into today’s Phillies-Cubs odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Best MLB Phillies-Cubs Betting Pick & Prediction: Total Simply Too High
Phillies-Cubs Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Phillies: -115 | Cubs: -105
Over 10: -105 | Under 10: -115
Two solid-but-unspectacular pitchers will take the mound at Wrigley Field tonight. The Philadelphia Phillies will start RHP Taijuan Walker (8-3), whose impressive record obfuscates a 4.10 ERA and 4.30 xERA. Walker pitched 5.1 scoreless innings his last time out against the Cubs. He’ll line up against the Chicago Cubs and RHP Kyle Hendricks (3-3), whose 2.60 ERA is impressive but unsustainable relative to his 4.19 xERA. The books have set the total for this one all the way up at 10 runs, signaling their lack of confidence in both starters.
These teams are also evenly matched on offense. The Phillies rank 21st in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .316. The Cubs are slightly ahead in a tie for 12th at .324. Tonight marks the sixth meeting between these teams, and the Phillies have the net run differential advantage at eight. They have also taken the last four games between these teams. The Phillies have been better on the road than at home this year, as their .722 home OPS ticks up to .752 on the road.
When read together, the matchup of solidly average offenses against not-great-but-not-bad pitchers doesn’t warrant a total of 10 runs or higher. The Philadelphia Phillies are 42-30-7 to the under this year. They are 6-2-1 to the under with a double-digit total. The Cubs are 38-37-3 to the under and 3-2-1 to the under with a double-digit total. Every other Phillies-Cubs game this year has received a total of between eight and nine runs, so today’s number marks a full-run increase. Perhaps that’s why Pinnacle, a sharp book, still has the total set to 9.5 with the juice favoring the under.
It’s easy to get swept up in a day’s betting card without zooming out for the bigger picture. However, the market’s own closing numbers for previous Phillies-Cubs games suggest the current one is a squeeze too high. The betting trends from this season also point to value on the under. While these offenses probably should be performing better than they’ve performed so far, a play on the under 10 at the current price of -114 (53.3%) at FanDuel has positive expected value.
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Best Phillies-Cubs MLB Pick: Under 10 -114 at FanDuel
