The Diamondbacks are riding high. Arizona is 40-25 and tied for the best record in the National League. Its success comes from a mix of veterans like Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and ace Zach Gallen and young guns like Corbin Carroll. They are also starting to find consistency behind the dish after acquiring 23-year-old backstop Gabriel Moreno from the Blue Jays last year. The Diamondbacks will be tested this week in a series against the defending National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies that starts on Monday night. Let’s dive into the betting odds for Monday’s Phillies-Diamondbacks game to make our MLB predictions and pick the best bet.
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Best MLB Phillies-Diamondbacks Betting Pick & Prediction: Moreno Pays Off
Phillies-Diamondbacks Odds
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Phillies: -105 | Diamondbacks: -115
Over 10.0: -110 | Under 10.0: -110
When the Arizona Diamondbacks traded Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays last season, it seemed like a pretty mundane deal. Varsho is a good young player who can field several positions. However, he was transitioning away from being a full-time catcher. The D-backs found a regular catcher on the other end of the trade, receiving Gabriel Moreno — in addition to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — from the Blue Jays in exchange for Varsho.
Moreno was a top prospect in the Blue Jays organization and ready to come into his own. He is now doing so for the Diamondbacks, serving as their primary catcher. He primarily stands out on defense and in game management, leading the staff and club to their 40-25 record. However, his bat is starting to come around. Despite having a weak power output (he has just two home runs on the year), Moreno’s batting average is up to .280. His average has been boosted by a hot June. He entered the month hitting just .217 but has improved his average over 60 points in the last 11 days.
Most importantly for sports betting purposes is the MLB prop lines on Moreno. He is currently sitting at +250 to record an RBI at BetMGM. That number is off. OddsShopper’s market-based model has Moreno’s true odds for getting in RBI in this Phillies-Diamondbacks matchup at +211. It creates a 12% expected value on this bet and can warrant wagering a pretty sizeable chunk of your bank roll. Kelly bet sizing suggests a 1.67% bank roll bet.
The model finds the sharpest sportsbooks in every sport and in every bet type and then identifies which books are off from that number. In this case, the value is at BetMGM. You can find more bets like this with a subscription to OddsShopper Premium.
Best Phillies-Diamondbacks MLB Pick: Gabriel Moreno Over 0.5 RBIS (+250, BetMGM)
