The Pirates-Brewers game headlines national TV Thursday, as it will be aired to a wide audience on FOX. The Brewers are only a half game back of the Reds for the NL Central lead, and though the Pirates are mostly in development mode, they can play spoiler as they travel to Milwaukee. Ahead of the division clash, we will turn to the OddsShopper’s Premium Tool to find the best bets for this matchup. Let’s dive into the best Pirates-Brewers bets for Thursday.
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Best MLB Pirates-Brewers Bet & Prediction: William Contreras
Odds via PointsBet
Pittsburgh Pirates: +110| Milwaukee Brewers: -130
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5: -190 | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5: +160
Over 8.5: -115| Under 8.5: -105
TV: FOX
The Brewers are hosting the ace of the Pirates staff, albeit one who has started falling off the last month or so. With three blowup starts this month, Mitch Keller’s metrics do not look quite as All-Star worthy as they did in June. He is, however, still the Pirates best starter by a wide margin, with a solid 3.81 FIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. More importantly, Keller is absolutely shutting down same-handed hitters, with righties recording just a .292 slugging and .080 ISO against him.
That is a key factor in the top prop for this game, as William Contreras has a 1.5 total bases line for this matchup. He is slugging a solid .449 and has a decent .172 this year, and though his average and 27 multi-hit game suggest that there is a path to exceeding 1.5 total bases via a couple singles, Keller’s ability to limit extra-base power helps this under a lot. Contreras is also considerably worse against right-handed pitching, with his slugging dropping 250 points and his ISO nearly 200 points in same-handed matchups. Everything points to Keller being able to limit Contreras in this one.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Contreras below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for Contreras under 1.5 total bases at -171, so this bet is beating the market at -160. It is also getting a solid 3% and 63% expected win rate, leading to a recommended bet size of $15. As such, Contreras’ total bases under earns the top value spot for Thursday’s Pirates-Brewers game.
Best Pirates-Brewers MLB Bet: William Contreras Under 1.5 Total Bases (-160, PointsBet)
