The Texas Rangers and Pittsburgh Pirates will do battle on ESPN+ early Wednesday afternoon. The Pirates won the first game of this series 6-4 on Monday, but can they deliver and win the series? Let’s dive into the betting odds for Wednesday afternoon’s Rangers-Pirates game to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet — we’re siding with the underdog for this one.
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Best Rangers-Pirates Bet & Prediction
Texas Rangers-Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Texas Rangers: -134 | Pittsburgh Pirates: +114
Over 9: -115 | Under 9: -105
The Texans Rangers will remain in Pennsylvania for a final matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday afternoon. The Rangers are decently favored for the matchup, which will see them trot LHP Martin Perez (5-1) out onto the mound. Perez is off to a worse start than his record and his 4.01 ERA suggest — he owns a 4.99 xERA. The Pirates will start RHP Johan Oviedo (3-3), who is off to a better start than his record and 4.69 ERA suggest, as he owns a 3.90 xERA.
Although it’s been hard to argue with the Rangers’ offense this year, the numbers suggest they’re off to an unsustainably hot start. They rank a dominant second in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .345, but only slot in sixth in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .333. In contrast, the Pirates rank 13th in both wOBA (.319) and xwOBA (.328). These numbers suggest Wednesday’s game should be a close one — perhaps closer than the sportsbooks are anticipating.
The batting splits also point to value on the underdog. The Pirates fare better against left-handed pitchers like Perez, against whom they own a solid .792 OPS, much better than their .699 OPS against right-handed pitching. In contrast, the Rangers own a .778 OPS against right-handed pitchers like Oviedo, which is a noticeable downtick from the .841 they own against lefties. Texas’ road OPS of .738 slots in just barely above Pittsburgh’s home OPS of .711.
The public books are favoring the Rangers just a bit too much. The Pirates slot in at +114 on the moneyline and at -142 to cover the run line at FanDuel Sportsbook, but Pinnacle, a sharp book, had those numbers at +111 and -146, respectively, as of publication. If you can get the Pirates to keep this within a run at odds of -150 or better, do so! Bettors who haven’t registered with FanDuel yet can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Rangers-Pirates MLB Bet: Pirates +1.5 -142 at FanDuel
