The Tampa Bay Rays opened the season with a 13-game winning-streak. They have coasted ever since, riding a strong lineup and pitching staff to the top of the AL East. Tampa recently got bumped to second place, but they are maintaining a 71-49 record that should get them a Wild Card spot, if not more. The San Francisco Giants are fighting for a playoff spot of their own. The two squads open a series against one another on Monday night in San Francisco. Let’s dive into the Rays-Giants odds using the OddsShopper market-based model to make a prediction and MLB bet.
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Best MLB Rays-Giants Bet & Prediction: Look Out for Rays Platoon
Rays-Giants Odds, via BetRivers
Rays: -134 | Giants: +115
Rays -1.5: +128 | Giants +1.5: -155
Over 7.5: -108 | Under 7.5: -112
Tyler Glasnow is the headliner for Monday’s Rays-Giants matchup. Glasnow has become the Rays’ de facto ace with Shane McClanahan on the shelf despite missing most of the season with his own spate of injuries. Back spasms have now sidelined him since July 31, but the injury is not considered to be as serious as the oblique and arm problems he suffered a year ago. When healthy, Glasnow’s numbers are elite. He is sporting a 3.15 ERA and 1.008 WHIP on the year in addition to superb advanced metrics. He has also struck out 98 batters across 68.2 innings in 2023.
The Giants are likely to counter with several arms. They are expected to use Ryan Walker as their opener for the first or second inning. He will likely be followed by Sean Manaea, who could see the bulk of the work. Manaea has looked good in his last few outings, including a four-inning, one-run appearance as a bulk reliever last week against the Los Angeles Angels. His ability to miss bats is key to his success, as Manaea has struck out 94 batters in 77.2 innings this year. However, his overall numbers are weak and he is surrendering hard contact when not missing bats.
The Rays lineup is a bit unpredictable given that the Giants will be switching pitchers early. There is a good shot that the Rays will start the game off with more lefties in the lineup to go against the right-handed Walker. That could mean extra playing time tonight for Luke Raley, who normally sits against lefties. Raley has had the best year of his career in 2023, which at 93 games is also his longest stint in the big leagues since he came up in 2021 with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He is especially productive against right-handers and has become an important part of the Rays’ platoon strategy.
From an MLB betting perspective, the most important information is simply the misprice on Raley’s prop markets at BetRivers. You can currently grab Raley to go over 0.5 runs for +160, which has a solid edge. This Rays-Giants bet has a 4% positive expected value given its 40% win rate and true odds of +150. It is worth laying 0.8% of your bankroll if you are using the full Kelly Criterion for proper staking.
Best MLB Rays-Giants Player Prop: Luke Raley Over 0.5 Runs (+160) at BetRivers
