The Boston Red Sox open up a two-game interleague set against the Atlanta Braves. Both teams are playing extremely well with the Red Sox winning eight of their last 10 while the Braves have won seven of their last 10. With two scorching hot offenses, we’re fading veteran pitcher Charlie Morton and his xERA of 5.24 as our top MLB player prop bet.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Charlie Morton O/U 17.5 Outs
At first glance, Charlie Morton has been a solid piece in the Atlanta Braves rotation. Advanced metrics would say otherwise. Morton has an expected earned run average of 5.24 and an xSLG percentage of .457. In comparison, his xSLG was .379 last season. He’s faced off against some underwhelming teams to start his 2023 campaign. The San Diego Padres twice without Fernando Tatis Jr. and disappointing offenses in the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets. Tonight will be his toughest test against the Boston Red Sox.
We backed Kevin Gausman in our last MLB player prop against the Red Sox and they pummeled him. He only went 3.1 innings pitched and allowed seven hits. A similar outcome could be in the works for Morton. Out of the 23 right-handed starters to face off against the Red Sox this season, only four have strung together six complete innings.
The Red Sox have been crushing right-handed pitching all season but particularly in the last two weeks. They’re hitting .318 and rank second in wRC+. The lineup versus Morton will feature seven left-handed bats who hit .276 against Morton this season. The first four players in the lineup all have a strikeout rate against right-handed pitching below 20%. Look for them to ride Morton’s pitch count up and deliver on the road.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Charlie Morton Under 17.5 Outs +100 (Caesars)
