The Texas Rangers are hanging on to the final AL Wild Card spot by a thread. The team was pulling away, entering the final two weeks with a bit of a cushion after a four-game road series sweep against the Toronto Blue Jays. Things changed quickly over the weekend. The Rangers followed up their hot streak by losing three in a row to the Cleveland Guardians. They’ll hope to turn it around when they do battle with the Boston Red Sox on Monday night. Let’s take a look at the Red Sox-Rangers odds and use the OddsShopper model to make a pick and find the best MLB bet.
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Best MLB Red Sox-Rangers Bet & Prediction: Robbie Grossman
Red Sox-Rangers Odds, via FanDuel
Red Sox: +140 | Rangers: -166
Red Sox +1.5: -154 | Rangers -1.5: +128
Over 8.5: -114 | Under 8.5: -106
The Rangers entered the 2023 season with World Series hopes. They added one of the league’s top starting pitchers, Jacob deGrom, to their pitching staff and had high hopes for their offense. The offensive output has been there, but deGrom promptly injured his elbow in the first month of the season, ending his year. That didn’t stop the Rangers from playing strong baseball, and they doubled down on their pitching by adding Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Scherzer is now out for the year with an injury, as well. The Rangers are reeling.
This weekend’s three game series in Cleveland was a tailspin for the Rangers. The club was riding high when they left Toronto. The four-game sweep over the Blue Jays was part of a six-game win streak that included four games in which the Rangers posted nine runs or better. They averaged just two runs a game this weekend. They now lead the Seattle Mariners for the final AL Wild Card spot by only one game.
Texas will look to stop the bleeding on Monday when they welcome the Boston Red Sox to Arlington. The Red Sox are on a four-game road skid of their own, including a weekend series sweep against those same Toronto Blue Jays. Boston didn’t enter 2023 with high hopes, but they played solid baseball out of the gate and remained in the hunt for a playoff spot most of the year. They’ve fallen to 72-76 and are now on the outside looking in as the team prepares to re-group for next year.
Kutter Crawford will be on the hill to start the game for Boston. The 27-year-old has been a steady hand in the Red Sox’ rotation but has struggled as of late. Crawford hasn’t lasted more than four innings in any of his last three starts. He managed to get through 4.2 IP with just one earned run in his last outing, but he was hit hard in his two prior appearances. Crawford gave up five earned runs in 3.2 IP in a start on September 5th against the Tampa Bay Rays. He was hammered by the Houston Astros to the tune of six earned runs in 2.2 IP in late October.
With Crawford on the hill, there’s a decent chance the Rangers can get back to hitting the ball. That’s especially the case if the weather is right and the roof is open in Arlington. One MLB prop bet is popping for value in OddsShopper’s model. MLB bettors can grab Robbie Grossman to hit a home run for +630 at FanDuel. The bet connects 15% of the time, giving it true odds of +571. That comes in at a 9% positive expected value. It doesn’t win often enough to warrant a huge investment, but this Red Sox-Rangers bet is worth staking just below 0.5% of your bankroll if you’re using the full Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth.
Best Red Sox-Rangers MLB Bet: Robbie Grossman Over 0.5 Home Runs (+630) at FanDuel
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