Thursday’s baseball slate is a smaller one, but there are still plenty of games worth a potential look in the betting market. A few teams in the thick of the playoff hunt match up, while some other series are more lopsided, with lines approaching -200. Today’s best bet comes from one of the marquee games on the slate, with the Reds traveling to the desert to take on the Diamondbacks.
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Best Reds-Diamondbacks Odds, Pick & Prediction
Arizona is a pretty sizeable favorite around -160, and although that price is fine, the first five innings line for the Diamondbacks squad is more appealing. It is a more manageable -125 for Arizona to cover 0.5 runs, and it also allows bettors to isolate the Diamondbacks starting pitcher, who is in a great spot.
The Reds are 67-61 and an impressive 36-27 away from home. They are coming off a sweep of the Angels and have to stay on the road here in Arizona. Brandon Williamson gets the ball, and he has a 4-3 record and a 4.47 ERA. The road splits are not much different at 2-1 and 4.79, and there is not much about Williamson that merits a strong take either way. The Diamondbacks should get some production in the first five, and given their pitcher, that might be enough to push this bet across.
Arizona is right next to Cincinnati in the Wild Card standings, so this series could go a long way towards determining postseason placement. The Diamondbacks are doing their part lately, having just taken two from the Rangers and coming away with successful road series against the Padres and Rockies. Tonight Merrill Kelly takes the mound, who brings a 10-5 record with a 3.13 ERA year into the game, and at home the splits do not really change. His 2.70 ERA in August shows there has not been a drop-off, and Kelly is almost a lock to eat up all five innings. It would not be a surprise to see Kelly hold Cincinnati to almost no production, setting the stage for Arizona to need only a run or two to cash this ticket.
These are two quality teams vying for big wins late in the season, so do not be shocked if the series is competitive. Add in that each team is playing good baseball right now, and it has all the makings of a collision course. That does not mean everything is going to be a 50/50 toss up, and this first five innings bet is a good example of that. Arizona at home has several advantages, the most important being Kelly getting the ball, and his ability to hold down the order through five will go a long way to cashing this ticket.
Best Reds-Diamondbacks Pick Today: Arizona Diamondbacks First Five Innings -0.5 (-125, DraftKings)
