The Boston Red Sox will host the Cincinnati Reds live from Fenway Park tonight on ESPN+, and bettors eager to get some skin in the game should expect plenty of runs. Let’s dig into the betting odds for Wednesday’s Reds-Red Sox game to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet. We’re trusting Cincinnati’s offense to put runs on the scoreboard.
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Best MLB Reds-Red Sox Bet & Prediction: Team Total Markets Standing Out
Reds-Red Sox Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Reds: +146 | Red Sox: -174
Over 10.5: -108 | Under 10.5: -112
The Boston Red Sox currently rank last in the AL East, but they own a better record than the entirety of the AL Central. They’ll start LHP James Paxton (1-1), who owns a 5.14 ERA through three games started and 14 innings pitched. The Reds will start veteran RHP Luke Weaver (1-2), whose 5.45 ERA is a bit higher than his 4.30 xERA suggests it should be, although playing in Great American Ballpark can cause problems like that one.
But even if these teams are closely matched on the mound, the Red Sox have a massive edge on offense. Boston ranks fifth in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .334. The team slots in a still-impressive 11th in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .329. Meanwhile, the Reds rank 16th in wOBA at .320 and a dreadful 27th in xwOBA at .307. Both teams likely have inflated wOBA because of their hitter-friendly parks.
The splits also suggest plenty of runs should cross home plate on Wednesday night. Surprisingly, the Reds own a higher OPS on the road (.730) than at home (.723). They also own a .771 OPS against left-handed pitchers like Paxton. The Red Sox own a much higher OPS at home (.849) than on the road (.678), and they haven’t shown a bias toward either right- or left-handed pitching. Boston ranks second in runs per game at home (6.07); Cincinnati ranks 17th in runs per game on the road (4.58).
The total has been bid up from 10 to 10.5, but we can still find some value on Cincinnati’s individual team total. FanDuel Sportsbook is are yet to properly adjust those markets — they have Boston set to 5.5 and Cincinnati set to 4.5 despite having the full-game total set to 10.5. The juice isn’t even compensating for those lower-end numbers, as we can buy the Reds to go over 4.5 runs at +100. The same prop would cost -105 at DraftKings and -103 at Pinnacle. This isn’t a ton of edge, but it’s enough for me.
Best Reds-Red Sox MLB Bet: Reds Over 4.5 +100 at FanDuel
