The Cincinnati Reds and Kansas City Royals will square off tonight on ESPN+. Although neither team has had the best season, tonight’s game should be a close-matched battle. Let’s dive into the betting odds for Monday night’s Reds-Royals game to make our MLB predictions and pick the best bet. We’ll also go over whether it’s a smart spot to take advantage of the early win bonus at DraftKings.
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Best MLB Reds-Royals Betting Pick & Prediction: Cincinnati is Red Hot
Reds-Royals Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Reds: +100 | Royals: -120
Over 8.5: -115 | Under 8.5: -105
A pair of star veterans will take the mound for tonight’s battle in Kansas City. The Reds will start RHP Luke Weaver (1-2), whose 6.28 ERA and 4.51 xERA are a cause for concern. The Royals will start RHP Zack Greinke (1-6), whose 4.59 ERA and 4.63 xERA aren’t bad enough to justify his miserable record; Kansas City’s offensive struggles deserve the blame for that.
Neither one of these offenses are good. The Reds rank a solid 14th in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .320, but rank a disastrous 28th in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .307. At first blush, this suggests Cincinnati’s offense has benefited substantially from playing in a hitter-friendly park. The Royals rank 29th in wOBA at .293 but 18th in xwOBA at .319.
The betting trends and splits point to some value on the Cincinnati Reds. Although their offense has performed unsustainably well, partly due to Great American Ballpark, their OPS on the road (.725) is still better than Kansas City’s OPS at home (.711). Further, Cincinnati’s OPS against right-handed pitchers (.717) significantly outpaces Kansas City’s (.659). The Reds also now have Elly De La Cruz and his 1.118 OPS to help out offensively. Meanwhile, the Royals are also an atrocious 9-23 at home.
We’re going to fade the Royals here on the moneyline. Their terrible home record and incompetent offensive play thus far make them a solid option to fade, especially at DraftKings, where we’ll get paid out early if the Reds go up by just two runs through their early win bonus! Pinnacle, a sharp book, is also selling Cincinnati at +100, so we’re getting this play at a fantastic price. New to DraftKings? You can get $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Reds-Royals MLB Pick: Cincinnati Moneyline +100 at DraftKings
