On a Memorial Day loaded with baseball action, games that will grace national audiences should take center stage. The Colorado Rockies will visit the Arizona Diamondbacks early in the afternoon on ESPN+. Let’s get into the betting odds for Monday’s Rockies-Diamondbacks game to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet. We’re fading both offenses for this one.
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Best MLB Rockies-Diamondbacks Bet & Prediction: Fade Both Offenses Today
Colorado Rockies-Arizona Diamondbacks Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Colorado Rockies: +155 | Arizona Diamondbacks: -210
Over 10: -105 | Under 10: -115
After years of irrelevance, the Arizona Diamondbacks lead the NL Wild Card race. They even slot in just 1.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. They’ll start RHP Ryne Nelson (1-2) tonight, and while Nelson owns a not-so-great 5.02 ERA, his 4.43 xERA suggests he has gotten somewhat unlucky. The division cellar-dwelling Colorado Rockies will start RHP Karl Kauffmann (0-2), whose 9.35 ERA is cause for concern. However, the youngster has only two career starts and 8.2 innings pitched, all of which came this season, to his name.
While the D-backs have an edge on the mound, they might not have much of one on offense. Arizona ranks an impressive 10th in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .327. However, Arizona also ranks a much less impressive 23rd in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .312. The Rockies rank 16th in wOBA at .319 but 22nd in xwOBA at .314. Colorado’s overperformance between the two metrics isn’t much of a surprise; hitter-friendly Coors Field makes inflated offensive statistics the norm.
This game has a few splits worth diving into. Nelson, a right-handed pitcher, imploded against the Rockies in his first-ever outing against them and surrendered six earned runs on nine hits and one walk. However, that game came in Coors Field, where the Rockies own an OPS of .803, much better than the .648 they own on the road. Still, Colorado’s OPS of .754 against right-handed pitching is notable. Arizona’s OPS at home (.774) and OPS against right-handed pitchers (.765) are both somewhat higher than the team average (.754) but not dramatically so.
The total for Monday afternoon’s contest has gotten a bit out of hand. It sits at a lofty 10 runs, which, if this game were at Coors Field, would be expected. But because we’re in Chase Field for this one, 10 runs is an excessively high number, especially with both offenses overperforming their wOBA. The under has gone 16-9 in Colorado’s away game and 14-11-2 in Arizona’s home games. Let’s lock this one in at -115 via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Rockies-Diamondbacks MLB Bet: Under 10 -115 at DraftKings
