The Phillies are currently in a Wild Card spot in the National League, but the margins are small, as they lead division rival Miami but just two games in the loss column. They need to take care of business against the Royals if they went to keep a firm hold on their postseason destiny. Kansas City, meanwhile, is just playing out the string in this national TV game. With that in mind, we are going to check out OddsShopper’s Premium Tool to find the best bets for this matchup. Let’s dive into the best Royals-Phillies bets for Friday.
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Best MLB Royals-Phillies Bet & Prediction: Bryce Harper
Odds via BetRivers
Kansas City Royals: +205 | Philadelphia Phillies: -245
Kansas City Royals +1.5: -106 | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5: +102
Over 9.0: -122 | Under 9.0: -105
TV: MLB Network (Out of Market)
Everything is set up for the Phillies to have a good offensive day. They are at home taking on one of MLB’s worst teams, who is throwing probably their worst starter in Jordan Lyles. This should scream overs.
However, the Phillies are in a bit of a slump, at least relative to their talent. Over the last week, the team has the sixth-lowest slugging percentage in the league and isolated power (ISO) of just .117, and it has also struck out the second most in baseball. So even with the cherry matchup, Philadelphia is not automatic for offense at the moment.
Now, Bryce Harper has not necessarily been the poster child for this poor stretch — he has hits in six of the last seven — but he has been one of the bigger disappointments in terms of power this year. Harper started the season in early May, so he has a solid sample of 75 starts this year. He still only has five home runs and 23 extra-base hits total. Harper’s average and on on-base percentage are solid, but despite that he is only posting a .409 slugging, leading to his isolated power falling to only .115.
Getting a line of 1.5 total bases, Harper finding a multi-hit game is certainly within reason; he has 27 of those this year. But he only has six one-hit games in which the hit went for extra bases, so his hit rate on over 1.5 is just 44%.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Harper below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for Harper under 1.5 total bases at -113, so this bet is beating the market at -105. It is also getting a solid 4% EV and 53% expected win rate, leading to a recommended bet size of $13. As such, Harper’s total bases under earns the top value spot for Friday’s Royals-Phillies game.
Best Royals-Phillies MLB Bet: Bryce Harper Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105, BetRivers)
