Two of the MLB’s worst offenses, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians, will line up against one another early on Wednesday afternoon. While the matchup may not seem that exciting, getting some skin in the game can spice things up. Let’s dive into the Tigers-Guardians odds for our best MLB bet — we’re placing a wager on the total for this early game.
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Best Tigers-Guardians Bet: Books Sleeping on Today’s Pitchers
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Detroit Tigers: +110 | Cleveland Guardians: -130
Over 7.5: -115 | Under 7.5: -105
The Cleveland Guardians will host the Detroit Tigers early on Wednesday afternoon. Although Cleveland has the home-field advantage, Detroit has an advantage on the mound. The Tigers will start Eduardo Rodriguez, their ace, on Wednesday. Rodriguez owns a 3-2 record with a 1.81 ERA and ranks fourth in the AL Central in FiveThirtyEight’s rolling game score (56.9). The Guardians will start Peyton Battenfield, who owns an 0-3 record and a 4.07 ERA. He ranks fourth in Cleveland’s rotation in rolling game score (50).
The advanced metrics suggest both pitchers have gotten off to lucky starts this season. Rodriguez’s xERA slots in at 2.70, 0.89 runs higher than his actual ERA. Likewise, Battenfield’s xERA slots in at 6.32, a whopping 2.25 runs higher. Both pitchers’ career statistics support the conclusion that variance has inflated these numbers. Rodriguez owns a career ERA of 4.05, which is exactly what he recorded in a 17-start season for the Tigers last year. Battenfield has recorded an ERA of 3.97 in 29 AAA starts between 2022 and 2023.
With questionable pitching on the mound and a total of only 7.5, the over seems like a good play. However, neither offense has done much this year. The Guardians rank 29th in runs per game (3.54), one spot behind the 28th-ranked Tigers (3.74). The Guardians also rank last in OPS (0.629), again one spot behind the 29th-ranked Tigers (0.662). Over the last three seasons, only one team has finished with an OPS worse than Cleveland’s, and only six have finished with one worse than Detroit’s. These teams played a three-game series earlier in the year and scored no more than seven runs but just combined for eight on Monday.
Rodriguez and Battenfield faced off against one another in the most recent series between these teams, and their offenses combined to score a single run. E-Rod even made it through eight innings with a pitch count of 99. But with these teams now more familiar with the opposing pitchers — and with the total set to only 7.5 — I’m willing to back the over 7.5 at -115 via FanDuel Sportsbook. The advanced stats suggest these pitchers are slightly overrated and these offenses will probably pick up some steam. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Tigers-Guardians MLB Bet: Over 7.5 Runs -115 at FanDuel
