Wednesday’s split slate concludes with a late-night American League matchup on the West Coast between the Twins and Mariners, two teams clinging onto playoff contention and sitting around .500. Ahead of the matchup, we are going to hit up OddsShopper’s Premium Tool to find the best Twins-Mariners bets for Wednesday, which include some hitter props in a game that features a surprisingly low total. Let’s dive in.
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Best MLB Twins-Mariners Bet & Prediction: Julio Rodriguez
MLB Free Picks: Twins-Mariners Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins: +128 | Seattle Mariners: -150
Over 7.5: +100 | Under 7.5: -120
This game has the lowest total of the day, so at a glance one might think targeting offensive overs is a bad move. However, OddsShopper is seeing some value with the Mariners. Their implied team total is 4.5, which is closer to average for this slate, and they are getting a matchup with a pitcher in Kenta Maeda who has been gettable. He has also pitched pretty sparingly, only throwing 20 innings since the start of June. That said, Maeda does not give up much power, allowing just a .165 ISO this season.
That may, however, work in the Mariners’ favor. They do not produce a lot of power themselves, ranking 25th in total bases, but they still manage to manufacture runs at close to a league-average rate. As such, the fact that Maeda keeps the ball in the park but still allows 9.5 hits per nine sets up the top of the order reasonably well. If J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodriguez get on base, Maeda is live to surrender hits to the middle of the Seattle lineup when pitching out of the stretch — earlier this year against the Yankees, he gave up 10 runs on 11 hits, and not a single one was a home run.
Rodriguez is not scoring runs at quite the same pace he did last year, but he is still top 20 in the American League in that category. He has also scored at least one in over half his games this year (47 of 91, 51.6%). And since he has failed to score in three straight games now, this could be a game for some positive regression.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Rodriguez below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for over 0.5 Rodriguez runs at +110, so this over is beating the market at +115. This is around a 50-50 prop in terms of expected win rate, but the plus money is pushing the under to a solid 2% EV on OddsShopper and a recommended bet size of $8. Rodriguez has the top runs over on the slate and earns the No. 1 value spot for Wednesday night’s Twins-Mariners game.
Best Twins-Mariners MLB Bet: Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 Runs (+115, BetRivers)
