There are few better ways to avoid the Sunday scaries than watching sports all day. The action should get underway early with the Minnesota Twins taking on the Baltimore Orioles, but Mother Nature may have something else in mind. Still, with the game scheduled for 12 p.m. ET on Peacock, let’s dive into today’s Twins-Orioles odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Best MLB Twins-Orioles Betting Pick & Prediction: Total Market Has Value
Twins-Orioles Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Twins: -108 | Orioles: -108
Over 9: -105 | Under 9: -115
We’ve got a big pitching mismatch on tap in Sunday’s Twins-Orioles game. The Twins will start RHP Sonny Gray (4-2), whose 2.67 ERA and 3.86 xERA are firmly above replacement level. The Orioles will start LHP Cole Irvin (1-3), whose 7.18 ERA and 8.05 xERA are firmly below replacement level. Irvin ranks fifth-worst of the 372 eligible pitchers in xERA. His performance this year marks a major step back from last season, during which he recorded a 3.98 ERA
Although the Twins should have an edge on the mound, the Orioles should have an edge on offense. Baltimore ranks 10th in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .326. In contrast, Minnesota ranks a mediocre 17th in the metric at .321. Worse, the Twins fare much worse offensive on the road and against LHPs — their overall .710 OPS dips to .672 on the road and .662 against LHPs.
There are a few noteworthy betting trends for this matchup. The total sits at a relatively lofty nine runs. Although the Orioles are 41-34-5 to the over this season, they are actually 21-19-2 to the under when playing at home, largely because the books bump the total up in Camden Yards. The Twins are 44-36-3 to the under this year and are 23-17-1 to the under when playing on the road.
Ultimately, the under stands out as the sharpest angle for Sunday’s early action on Peacock. The books have routinely inflated the run total at Camden Yards this season to more than correct for Baltimore’s plucky offense. Although Baltimore’s starter for this one has struggled, opposing teams haven’t scored more than three runs in his two home starts this month. Irvin’s shaky 7.18 ERA even dips to 5.82 when he plays at home.
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Best Twins-Orioles MLB Pick: Under 9 -115 at FanDuel
