This week got off to a rough start for the Chicago White Sox. They’re lackluster season took a bigger dive when they got swept in the Crosstown Classic by their home-city rival Chicago Cubs. The team then traded away their best starting pitcher, shipping Lucas Giolito to the Los Angeles Angels for two prospects. There’s likely more in-store for the Sox, but they’ll look to at least notch a win against a division foe tonight when they open a series with the Cleveland Guardians. Let’s take a look at Thursday’s White Sox-Guardians odds to make the best prediction and pick the best MLB bet using OddsShopper’s market-based model.
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Best MLB White Sox-Guardians Betting Pick & Prediction: Oscar Colas
Nationals-Mets Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
White Sox: -108 | Guardians: -108
White Sox +1.5: -182 | Guardians -1.5: +150
Over 8.5: -110 | Under 8.5: -110
Tanner Bibee is far from being a household name, but the rookie SP has been a bright spot for the Guardians this season. The 24-year old was recalled in April after beginning 2023 at AAA-Columbus. Bibee was one of the organization’s top prospects and he quickly proved why at the major league level. He has a 3.04 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB this year, and has only allowed more than three earned runs on two occasions. It’s rare to find that level of consistency from a rookie starting pitcher.
The Guardians will face an equally strong starter– if not stronger– tonight in Dylan Cease. While 2023 hasn’t been as successful for Cease as last season, he has maintained a solid statistical output. Cease has a 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB ratio. Those numbers are a far cry from a year ago when he competed for the AL Cy Young award, but they are getting the job done.
Like most things with MLB betting, the important issue is price and probability. The starting pitchers stand out in this White Sox-Guardians game in the MLB odds, but FanDuel is leaving room on hitter props. One name you might never have heard of is the White Sox Oscar Colas, but that might be exactly why this MLB prop bet is so mispriced. Colas is a rookie from Cuba that was brought over by the White Sox this offseason as a left-handed bat to take infield innings against righties. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight, hitting last against Bibee.
That’s nothing to write home about, but Colas’s +870 MLB odds to hit a home run are. The true odds of the bet winning are+794. It connects about 11% of the time. That gives this one an 8% positive expected value. Since it doesn’t win often, you won’t want to stake your whole bankroll, but it’s worth putting down about .4% of your roll using the Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth.
Best White Sox-Guardians MLB Pick: Oscar Colas Over 0.5 Home Runs (+870) at FanDuel
