The Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers will do battle on Apple TV+ tonight at 6:40 p.m. ET. Both teams are a few games below .500, but with the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins sitting at only 26-24, who knows what will happen by the season’s end. Let’s dig into the betting odds for Friday night’s White Sox-Tigers game to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet. We’re fading both offenses in a pitcher-friendly park.
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Best MLB White Sox-Tigers Bet & Prediction: Comerica Park, Run Suppressor
Chicago White Sox-Detroit Tigers Odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago White Sox: -155 | Detroit Tigers: +130
Over 8.5: -120 | Under 8.5: +100
The Chicago White Sox are marginal road favorites for tonight’s action. They’ll start RHP Lance Lynn (3-5), whose 6.28 ERA is a bit higher than his 5.05 xERA, but neither number inspires much confidence. The Tigers will start LHP Joey Wentz (1-4), whose 7.45 ERA is likewise inflated relative to his 5.75 xERA. Still, both pitchers have struggled to start the season. Wentz ranks last among Detroit’s rotation in FiveThirtyEight’s rolling game score at 46.4. Lynn outpaces him at 52.1 and slots in right at the division average.
Neither one of these offenses are good. The Tigers rank a miserable 28th in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .293. However, they rank a much less miserable 21st in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .315. In contrast, the White Sox rank 26th in wOBA at .296 but rank 28th in xwOBA at .304. The White Sox have benefited from a hitter-friendly home park and own a terrible OPS of .644 on the road.
The batting splits point to some value on Chicago. The White Sox own an average OPS of .678, but that spikes to .738 when they face left-handed pitchers like Wentz. The Tigers own an average OPS of .660 that ticks down slightly to .652 when they face right-handed pitchers like Lynn. Although Lynn hasn’t faced the Tigers yet this year, he pitched against them twice last year for a cumulative 4.45 ERA. Wentz is yet to face the White Sox.
Despite the low-quality pitching, we’re actually going to fade both offenses and trust the under. The advanced stats suggest these offenses aren’t very good, and with Detroit’s Comerica Park favoring pitchers, even after the dimensional adjustments this year, locking in the under 8.5 runs at even odds is a sharp contrarian angle. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under priced at -105, so let’s bet the +100 at Caesars Sportsbook before it disappears. If you haven’t signed up for Caesars, you can get your first bet on the house up to $1,250!
Best White Sox-Tigers MLB Bet: Under 8.5 +100 at Caesars
